Kentucky Derby Post Positions: Journalism Favored Breaking From Post Eight

There are plenty of factors to consider when betting on the Run for the Roses, one of which is Kentucky Derby post positions.

How the horses respond to their post position greatly impacts performance and shifts Kentucky Derby odds, making the post position draw one of the key betting events on the horse racing calendar.

Post positions have been determined for the 2025 Kentucky Derby — keep reading for a complete guide to the posts and morning-line odds for the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

2025 Kentucky Derby post positions and morning line odds

The draw for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is crucial as betting lines will shift depending on where certain horses start, notably the No. 1 and the furthest outside positions. The 2025 Kentucky Derby horses found out their post draws on April 26.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing.

Flavien Prat would ride No. 21 Baeza if the horse draws in off the also-eligible list by 9:00 a.m. ET on Friday, and a replacement rider would then be named for No. 2 Neoequos.

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Kentucky Derby wins by post position

Where Kentucky Derby horses start can either give them an advantage or a disadvantage right out of the gate. Here are the post positions that claim the most Kentucky Derby titles since the introduction of the starting gate in 1930.

Post No. 17 has never won the Kentucky Derby, and only three No. 17 horses have finished in the money in 42 overall starts.

Wins-by-post-position trends

• Post No. 5 boasts the most Kentucky Derby winners with 10, most recently Always Dreaming in 2017. Posts No. 10 (nine winners) and No. 15 (six winners) are the next two most successful starting positions for the Kentucky Derby.
• Post No. 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner since the starting gate was introduced in 1930, however, due to race dropouts No. 17 has had only 42 starts. With that in mind, No. 6 is also a bad starting position with only two wins in 92 starts.
• Drawing the rail in post No. 1 is challenging but not impossible, as it’s produced eight Derby champions — the last being Ferdinand in 1986. 
• The longest Derby drought between winners is post No. 14, which last boasted a winner in 1961 (Carry Back) and has only claimed two champs in 67 starts.

In-the-money finishes by post position

When it comes to Kentucky Derby betting, it’s all about finishing in the money (ITM): first, second or third. Here’s a look at the historic Kentucky Derby post position returns for bets to win, place, or show.

In-the-money finishes by post position trends

• Gate No. 10 has handed out the most money at the Kentucky Derby, with 24 horses finishing in the money in 85 starts. However, the last horse to win, place, or show from No. 10 was Paddy O'Prado, finishing third way back in 2010.
• Posts No. 2 (26 ITM in 92 starts) and No. 5 (22 ITM in 92 starts) are the next most profitable Kentucky Derby starting positions in terms of finishers in the money.
• The lowest percent of horses finishing in the money comes out of gate No. 17 with only three ITM in 43 starts. However, No. 6 has just 13 ITM results in 92 overall starts.
• Post No. 9 has only four Kentucky Derby winners over 87 starts but has seen 17 horses finish in the money in those races, most recently Firing Line with a second-place run against eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.

Using post position to handicap the Kentucky Derby

When handicapping the Kentucky Derby, respect the historical production from certain post positions but put more weight into how the individual horses have performed in those starting gates. Recognize how a horse wants to run the race, either setting the pace or stalking and how the post position influences that strategy.

If a horse draws one of the four inside positions, look back at its previous races and if it has raced from similar starting gates as well as investigate the respective jockey and how they’ve dealt with the early inside position.

Horses on the inside are often pinched up against the rail and bumped as jockeys fight for the inside line early into the race. Some jockeys holding an inside gate will push the horse hard from the start to avoid that traffic but run the risk of leaving the horse gassed for the remainder of the race.

Horses on the outside don’t find themselves getting banged around as much early on, which lends itself more to stalking paces who look to push hard late in the race. However, outside track position can be tough to make up if the early pace is fast and the horse isn’t used to the 1 1/4-mile distance.

History of post positions at the Kentucky Derby

Post positions have been used in the past 92 Kentucky Derby races, with the starting gate first being introduced in the 1930 Run for the Roses. Prior to proper gates, horses were lined up as best they could behind a series of wires. This format led to unfair positioning and unruly horses bumping and kicking other competitors before the start of the race.

With a field of up to 20 horses, the Kentucky Derby required two separate starting gates (most commonly 14-horse gates) until 2020, when a custom 20-horse gate was debuted. The decision for the larger gate was based on the safety of horses and riders, eliminating extra spacing between the main and auxiliary gates that caused those horses on the outside to recklessly fight for rail position against a bigger break from the main gate.

Kentucky Derby post position FAQs

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