The Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners wrap up a three-game series at T-Mobile Park this afternoon as Seattle looks to complete the sweep.
My Braves vs. Predictions for May 1 found value in the Under, and you can find out why in my MLB picks breakdown below.
Braves vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners edged the Atlanta Braves 3-2 last night and 2-1 in the series opener. Those low-scoring contests have been the norm for these teams, which have both been cashing the Under at an incredible rate. The Under has hit in 12 of Atlanta's previous 14 games while going 18-2 in Seattle's last 20 contests.
A big reason the Under has been trending for the Mariners is they struggle at the dish. Seattle is 26th in the majors in OPS (.649) and 25th in runs per game (3.63), with those numbers dropping to .622 and 3.17 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
I don't see the M's scoring much today either against veteran southpaw Chris Sale on the mound. Sale has a 3.69 ERA through five starts, and his expected ERA (3.12), OBA (.193), and WHIP (0.92) suggest he's been even better. Seattle has been hitting even worse against lefties like Sale — posting an OPS of just .614.
The Mariners respond with righthander Emerson Hancock who was sixth pick overall in the 2020 MLB draft. Hancock was roughed up in his second start of the year, surrendering 11 hits and eight runs through 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers. He's looked sharp since then, picking up three straight quality starts and limiting foes to 10 hits and four earned runs in 18 innings.
The Braves have a loaded lineup but have plated just 2.25 runs per game in their last four contests, and it's tough to go against what has been such a strong Under trend for both sides — especially in a ballpark that suppresses runs.
Braves vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 total bases
Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 total bases
Since I'm expecting a lower-scoring game this afternoon, it makes sense to also fade the superstar hitters on both sides, especially with those sluggers struggling lately.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is coming off a season where he was named NL MVP, but he has a slugging percentage of .318 this year. He has gone just 2-for-24 at the dish over the last week, and he also has a history of struggling in Seattle, hitting just a pair of singles in 22 career at bats at T-Mobile Park.
Julio Rodriguez made his first All-Star game last year, but he's slugging just .308 this season and has gone 1-for-15 at the plate over the last four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mariners odds
Braves vs Mariners live odds
Braves vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+100) | Seattle +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -170 | Seattle +145
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Braves vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite losing their last two games, the Braves have the best record in the majors at 19-9 and have the second-best World Series odds (+425).
- The Mariners are 11-3 in their last 14 games and are atop the AL West with a 17-13 mark.
- The Braves are second in the majors in OPS (.774) while ranking fourth in barrel rate and first in hard-hit rate.
- Despite struggling to generate runs, the Mariners are 15th in barrel rate and fourth in hard-hit rate.
Braves vs Mariners trend
Both of these teams at 8-0 to the Under in their last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Mariners.
Braves vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, RSNW |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (3-1, 3.70 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Emerson Hancock (3-2, 5.06 ERA) |
Braves vs Mariners latest injuries
Braves vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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