Illinois vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Sweet 16 Matchup

The tightest March Madness odds of the Sweet Sixteen goes tonight with the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini looking to upset the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones. The Illini are short underdogs of only +1.5, but every bucket is a chore against the Cyclones’ defense, so a spread within a bucket can still feel like a mountain.

Fortunately for Illinois, it enjoys arguably the best pure scorer remaining in the March Madness bracket. It has been more than seven straight weeks of nearly constant buckets from Terrence Shannon Jr. This may be his stiffest test yet, but there is every reason to expect the fifth-year senior to deliver.

Betting on Terrence Shannon Jr. in the postseason has been a profitable approach thus far, so let’s trust it again in our free March Madness picks and predictions as we preview Illinois vs Iowa State on Thursday, March 28, with tip set for 10:09 ET.

Illinois vs Iowa State best odds

Illinois vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Ken Pomeroy ranks Iowa State’s defense as the best in the country. There is reason to worry about Terrence Shannon Jr. pouring in points once more, but this defense does have flaws.

Conference opponents collected a third of available offensive rebounds against the Cyclones, and Iowa State sent those foes to the free throw line far more often than the national average, ranking No. 11 in the Big 12.

How did Baylor wing Jalen Bridges score 20 points against the Cyclones in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals? In no small part thanks to six offensive rebounds. How did Kansas State guard Tylor Perry pour in 18 in those quarterfinals? Going 7-of-8 at the free throw line helped.

In Iowa State’s five postseason games, four individual opponents have scored at least 18 points. Bucket-getters can, indeed get buckets against the Cyclones. It is a magnificent team defense, but it can be exposed via isolation or, more a rarity, sharp-shooting from deep.

Enter Terrence Shannon Jr. His true shooting percentage is neck-and-neck with those four players of late, boosted by his penchant for shooting free throws but lowered by two other factors. First of all, Shannon is only okay from long range, hitting just 36.1% of his 6.7 attempts per game. And, to Thursday’s worry, Iowa State likely will make those ugly looks.

Secondly, Shannon had a midseason lull, but from February 10 — about two weeks after he returned from a six-game suspension — his numbers skyrocketed.

In 14 games, Shannon has averaged 27.0 points, falling short of 23 points just twice. His true shooting percentage in this stretch has been a lofty 65.8%. The best conference-only number from the four players with recent success against Iowa State was South Dakota State guard Zeke Mayo’s 61.3%, a number inflated by Summit League competition. Among the three major-conference players, the highest conference-only number was 60.8% from Wells.

Shannon is playing distinctly better than anyone who has already found recent success against the Cyclones, and he is doing it while keeping the ball in his hands. In these 14 games, his usage rate is 29.7%. In five postseason games, it has been 33.4%, a number that would have ranked in the Top 10 nationally across the season.

Iowa State is vulnerable to individual stars, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is playing at a level few others in the country can think of for just a night, let alone seven weeks as he has enjoyed. Now is not the time to start doubting the fifth-year veteran.

My best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 21.5 points (-107 at Pinnacle)

Illinois vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 21.5 points

Terrence Shannon Jr. Under 2.5 made threes

Illinois moneyline

+900 at DraftKings

This same-game parlay may be a bit counterintuitive, but that is the reason to bet it. Shannon scored 28 points against Ohio State to open the Big Ten Tournament while hitting just a pair of 3s. In beating Duquesne on Saturday, he scored 30 points while going only 2-of-5 from deep.

He would have threaded this combination in the NCAA Tournament opener against Morehead State, too, if not for a garbage-time 3-pointer.

Against Iowa State’s defense, in particular, expect Shannon to work his way into the lane and to the free throw line.

If he does so, then Illinois should not be an underdog.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Illinois vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread opened with Illinois a 2.5-point underdog, sliding toward the Illini on Monday morning.
• The total hardly moved, opening at 146.5 and dropping to 145.5 or 146, depending on your sportsbook.
• Since Shannon dialed up his usage rate to astronomical levels, Illinois has gone 4-1 ATS, exceeding bookmakers' expectations by an average of 5.5 points even when including that one ATS loss.

Illinois vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Illinois has cashed the Over in all five of its postseason games and by an average of 15.4 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Iowa State.

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