Charleston vs Alabama Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Sears Steers Crimson Tide Offense in March Madness Opener

Friday’s West Region battle between the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 13 Charleston Cougars promises plenty of fireworks for March Madness bracket bettors. The total for this tilt is sitting at 173.5 points, making it by far the tallest Over/Under line in the opening round of the March Madness odds. 

In fact, should this current number close there or higher, it would be the biggest Big Dance total of all-time. That towering number is warranted, considering the competitors.

Alabama plays one of the fastest paces in the country and has a solid green light from beyond the arc. Defense, however, is often optional for the Crimson Tide. Charleston won’t shy away from an up-and-down game and follows a similar strategy, trying to outgun opponents with an offense averaging 80 points a night.

I try to wrangle this honking total and size up the spread for this No. 4 versus No. 13 barnburner and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Charleston on Friday, March 22.

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Charleston vs Alabama best odds

Charleston vs Alabama picks and predictions

With a historic total on the March Madness odds board, you don’t want to get cute when it comes to the scoring props. 

The Alabama Crimson Tide will absolutely set the pace of this game, and leading the charge is star guard Mark Sears, who averages 21 points per game on the season. The senior is at his best in the open court and Sears will go after a Charleston Cougars defense that struggles to defend in transition, ranking 219th in points allowed per play to those offensive sets, according to ShotQualityBets.

The Cougars steer into the skid when it comes to tempo, ranked 59th in pace in the country. In Sears’ past matchups with high-gear SEC schools that also placed Top-60 in tempo, he scored 20, 21, 22, 22, 22, 25, and 33 points versus fellow speedsters Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and LSU.

Sears is able to score from all over the place — inside, 3-point range, at the foul line — but isn’t as dependent on the outside shots dropping as some of his teammates. Alabama, as a team, does see its 3-point success shrink away from home.

Sears’ scoring prop for the Round of 64 is at 22.5 O/U at most books with the Over priced at -115. However, you can find a low of 21.5 with the Over at -122. That sits in line with Sears’ scoring average on the season and falls shorter than his scoring output of 22.3 points per SEC contest.

Twenty-two points is something of a magic number for Bama’s senior guard. Sears has scored 22 points or more in five straight games and in 13 of his 19 conference clashes, landing exactly on 22 points in six of those showings. Weird.

Given the rising number for this Round of 64 game, Alabama’s team total is sitting at 91.5 points and game models call for a ceiling of 94 points from the Crimson Tide on Friday. In line with that, Sears’ player projections are forecasting more than 23 points versus Charleston.

Many are pegging the Cougars as a potential Cinderella and early money is on Charleston, shortening this spread. If things get close, Sears will be Alabama’s top option every trip down the floor. 

My best bet: Mark Sears Over 21.5 points (-122 at FanDuel) No-sweat promo available

Charleston vs Alabama same-game parlay

Mark Sears Over 21.5 points

Under 173.5

Race To 15 — Charleston

No-sweat promo available

+628 at FanDuel

Sears slices up the Cougars in transition, scoring at the rim and the foul line for 22+ in the Round of 64.

This total has spiked five points since opening, so this is a contrarian buyback. Everyone rags on Alabama’s defense, and rightfully so. But the Tide were defending a loaded SEC all season.

“Race To” bets are the most fun you’ll have betting on March Madness. Charleston’s ability to knock down triples makes it a live dog to be first to 15 points on Friday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Charleston vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

Once this pairing was official on Selection Sunday, Alabama opened as 10.5-point neutral-court favorite in Spokane. 

That spread started to tumble with early money backing the underdog, slimming it to Bama -9.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus data, however, 57% of picks are laying the points with the Crimson Tide.

Alabama is no stranger to March. The Tide enter the madness as one of the top offensive powers in the country, ranked No. 3 in offensive efficiency. If you’ve ever seen Nate Oates’ programs play, it’s either fastbreak layups or 3-pointers — nothing in between. 

Alabama averages almost 91 points on the season but a porous defense has spoiled plenty a payday for Bama backers, with the Tide hemorrhaging more than 81 points against. That’s left a 17-15 ATS mark, with Alabama covering only once in the seven games leading into the NCAA Tournament.

Bettors may not be as familiar with Charleston, but bookies are showing the Cougars plenty of respect — not only with this spread below double-digits but also with this hefty Over/Under. Charleston — the class of the CAA — can fill the stat sheet as well, doing the bulk of their damage from beyond the arc. But much like the Crimson Tide, they haven’t spun those points into gold, boasting a 16-16-1 ATS record overall.

OK, let’s get to the real story here. This total opened at 168.5 points on Selection Sunday and has been run-up to as high as 173.5 points in the first three days of action. According to Covers Consensus, 62% of picks are banking on a high-scoring finish in Spokane.

Alabama’s blend of high-octane offense and dismal defense has helped mold a 24-8 Over/Under record on the season — a 75% winning clip for the Over. The Crimson Tide have stayed Under the total only once in the last 11 games, facing totals in the mid-170s.

Charleston hasn’t had the same windfall for Over bettors this season, posting an 18-15 O/U count overall. The Cougars were 7-5 O/U in true road games but just 2-5 O/U on neutral courts. 

For what it’s worth, NCAA Tournament games with the tallest totals — 160 points or more — have produced a 14-19 Over/Under count since the 1998 Big Dance (57.6% Unders). 

Charleston vs Alabama betting trend to know

Alabama has gone Over its team total in 21 of its last 33 games (+7.50 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Charleston vs. Alabama.

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