When it comes to March Madness, everyone has an opinion, and they seldom hesitate to share their March Madness bracket predictions with you. You've likely already heard who your brother, best friend, and even dry cleaner are picking this year, but what would artificial intelligence think of the Big Dance, and better yet, what would a bracket of computer-generated March Madness picks look like?
Wonder no longer! We asked ChatGPT to give us projections for every matchup in this year's tournament, factoring in current odds and past trends, plus accounting for the chaos involved with a tournament full of college kids.
The result is an AI March Madness bracket with its fair share of chalky picks as well as a few serious surprises. Read the NCAAB picks and analysis below to find out who ChatGPT thinks will be the last team standing on April 6.
March Madness picks methodology
ChatGPT is an impressive AI-powered language model, but it still struggles at times with betting news and topical information.
Fortunately, we brought it up to speed by feeding it the latest statistical and sports betting data available. That included March Madness odds for every team, strength of schedule rankings, regular season records, and advanced metrics like adjusted tempo, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and efficiency margin.
We then provided ChatGPT with historical information from recent iterations of the NCAA Tournament. We asked it to consider the likelihood of March Madness upsets in certain first and second-round matchups. It responded by spitting out a round-by-round breakdown with outcomes and score predictions for every March Madness game. We were especially excited to see the level of in-depth analysis in the later rounds and for the National Championship Game, in particular.
ChatGPT may not have chosen the same champ as some of our in-house college basketball experts, but it's hard to argue with its logic, as you'll see below.
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First Four predictions
No. 16 UMBC 74, No. 16 Howard 68
UMBC enters with a Top 50 effective field goal percentage, led by a backcourt that thrives on high-volume 3-point shooting. Howard’s interior defense has struggled against stretch-fours all season. UMBC’s ability to space the floor and force Howard into rotations will be the difference-maker here, allowing the Retrievers to advance to a date with Michigan.
No. 16 Lehigh 71, No. 16 Prairie View A&M 65
Lehigh’s discipline is their greatest asset; they rank in the Top 20 nationally in fewest turnovers per possession. Prairie View plays at a frantic pace but lacks the half-court execution to punish Lehigh’s zone. The Mountain Hawks will control the tempo, limit second-chance points, and earn the right to face the defending champion Florida Gators.
No. 11 NC State 77, No. 11 Texas 73
NC State barely made the field, but their defensive pressure (Top 15 in steal percentage) is a nightmare for a Texas team that has been inconsistent with ball security. NC State squad thrives in "win or go home" scenarios. Despite the Longhorns’ size advantage, the Wolfpack’s guard play and transition scoring will carry them into the main bracket.
No. 11 Miami (Ohio) 69, No. 11 SMU 66
The RedHawks were the story of the regular season, entering the MAC tournament 31-0 before a shocking loss. They are the ultimate "chip on the shoulder" team. Miami (Ohio) boasts a Top-10 defensive efficiency rating. SMU has the offensive firepower, but the RedHawks’ methodical pace and refusal to beat themselves will stifle the Mustangs in a low-scoring grind.
First Round predictions
East Region: First Round
No. 1 Duke 88, No. 16 Siena 58
Duke enters the tournament as the heavy favorite with the No. 1 overall efficiency rating in KenPom. Led by freshman sensation Cameron Boozer, the Blue Devils boast a defensive rating that allows just 91 points per 100 possessions. Siena, despite a gritty run to the MAAC title, lacks the interior length to challenge Boozer and the depth to survive Duke's transition offense over 40 minutes.
No. 8 Ohio State 75, No. 9 TCU 72
Ohio State leaned on their veteran frontcourt to navigate a brutal Big Ten schedule, finishing with a 21-12 record. TCU remains one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams, but the Buckeyes’ defensive rebounding percentage ranks in the Top 30. This game comes down to the wire, where Ohio State’s 78% team free-throw shooting provides the necessary cushion to advance.
No. 5 St. John’s 81, No. 12 Northern Iowa 70
Rick Pitino has returned the Red Storm to national prominence with a "94 feet of pressure" defensive scheme that ranks Top 10 in turnover percentage. Northern Iowa is a dangerous shooting team, but they struggled this season when faced with elite athletic length.
No. 4 Kansas 79, No. 13 Cal Baptist 64
The Jayhawks may have entered as a 4-seed, but their NET ranking of 14 suggests a much higher ceiling. Freshman star Darryn Peterson is a matchup nightmare for a Cal Baptist squad that lacks a true defensive stopper on the wing. Kansas dominates the glass, out-rebounding the Lancers by 15, and controls the paint from the opening tip in Oklahoma City.
No. 6 Louisville 82, No. 11 South Florida 74
Under Pat Kelsey, Louisville has transformed into a high-octane offensive unit that averages over 12 3-pointers per game. South Florida earned their way in with a physical defense, but they can't close out fast enough on the Cardinals' shooters. Louisville’s bench depth proves vital, providing 28 points to keep the energy high and the Bulls' defense on its heels.
No. 3 Michigan State 76, No. 14 North Dakota State 61
Tom Izzo has the Spartans peaking in March yet again. Despite a few late-season losses in Big Ten play, MSU’s 12th-ranked defensive efficiency is on full display here. They hold the Bison to just 34% shooting from the floor. Michigan State’s transition defense prevents any momentum for NDSU, while their veteran backcourt takes care of the ball with only seven turnovers.
No. 7 UCLA 68, No. 10 UCF 65
In a battle of defensive philosophies, UCLA’s "pack-line" beats out UCF’s high-pressure style. UCLA stays patient, utilizing the full shot clock to find high-percentage looks. A clutch mid-range jumper from their captain in the final 30 seconds secures the win.
No. 2 UConn 84, No. 15 Furman 67
The Huskies are on a mission after a late-season slide in the Big East. Dan Hurley’s squad remains an analytical powerhouse, ranking fifth in offensive efficiency. Furman’s "five-out" offense creates some early problems, but UConn’s ability to switch every screen eventually neutralizes the Paladins' shooters. The Huskies' interior dominance leads to 44 points in the paint and a comfortable victory.
- Favorites ML: 8-0
- Favorites ATS: 5-3
West Region: First Round
No. 1 Arizona 92, No. 16 LIU 64
Arizona is the fastest-paced team in the tournament, and LIU simply doesn't have the horses to keep up in the high altitude of the West bracket. Led by freshman phenom Brayden Burries, the Wildcats shoot 58% from the field. Arizona’s transition offense is a juggernaut that punishes even small mistakes, and they cruise into the second round with a 30-point lead by the 10-minute mark.
No. 8 Villanova 70, No. 9 Utah State 67
Villanova’s defensive metrics surged in the final month of the season, and they need every bit of it against a high-scoring Utah State team. The Wildcats dictate a slow tempo, keeping the game to just 64 possessions. Utah State has a chance to tie at the buzzer, but Villanova’s disciplined perimeter defense forces a contested airball, allowing the Cats to survive and advance.
No. 5 Wisconsin 74, No. 11 High Point 71
High Point entered as a trendy upset pick, but Wisconsin’s veteran experience in close games is the differentiator. The Badgers rank in the Top 20 in fewest fouls committed, which keeps High Point off the free-throw line. While the Panthers hit 10 threes to stay close, Wisconsin’s ability to execute their "swing" offense produces consistent buckets in the clutch to avoid the upset.
No. 4 Arkansas 85, No. 13 Hawaii 69
John Calipari’s Razorbacks are built on elite athleticism and length. Hawaii struggles to initiate their sets against Arkansas' active hands, leading to 10 steals for the Hogs. Arkansas uses their depth to keep fresh legs on the court, eventually wearing down the Rainbow Warriors. The Razorbacks’ dominance in transition scoring (22-4) allows them to pull away early in the second half.
No. 6 BYU 78, No. 11 NC State 75
NC State brings their "First Four" momentum into this matchup, but BYU’s volume 3-point shooting is too much to overcome. The Cougars rank fourth nationally in 3-point attempt rate. Even though the Wolfpack’s pressure defense forces some BYU miscues, the Cougars’ ability to hit five triples in the final eight minutes turns a four-point deficit into a hard-fought three-point victory.
No. 3 Gonzaga 89, No. 14 Kennesaw State 72
Mark Few has the Zags back in fine form, ranking seventh in the NET. Kennesaw State tries to match Gonzaga's pace, but that plays right into the Zags' hands. Gonzaga’s high-low passing game dismantles the Owls' interior defense, resulting in 52 points in the paint. With five players scoring in double figures, Gonzaga shows the offensive balance required for a deep March run.
UPSET No. 10 Missouri 76, No. 7 Miami (FL) 73
Missouri’s relentless ball pressure proves to be the undoing of a Miami team that has struggled with turnovers all season. The Tigers rank in the Top 10 for defensive turnover rate, and they force 17 Hurricanes miscues. Miami’s elite shot-making keeps them in the game, but Missouri’s ability to attack the rim and draw fouls allows them to seal the upset at the line.
No. 2 Purdue 80, No. 15 Queens 63
Purdue entered as the Big Ten Tournament champions and the second-ranked offense in the country. Braden Smith, who recently broke the Big Ten assist record, is clinical in finding open shooters. Queens attempts to use their speed to disrupt Purdue’s rhythm, but the Boilermakers' size advantage is insurmountable. Purdue’s discipline prevented the "15-over-2" miracle, as they dominate the glass 42-28.
- Favorites ML: 6-2
- Favorites ATS: 1-6
South Region: First Round
No. 1 Florida 82, No. 16 Lehigh 55
The defending champions are a KenPom darling, sitting fourth overall. Florida’s defensive rotations are surgical, and they hold Lehigh to just 22% from 3-point range. The Gators’ depth allows them to play 11 players double-digit minutes, keeping the pressure high for the full 40 minutes. Florida looks every bit like a team capable of becoming the first repeat champion in nearly 20 years.
UPSET No. 9 Iowa 79, No. 8 Clemson 77
In a back-and-forth battle, Iowa’s 15th-ranked tempo eventually wears down the Clemson defense. The Hawkeyes struggled during a mid-season slump but regained their form in the Big Ten tourney. Clemson’s veteran frontcourt performs well, but Iowa hits a corner three with 4.2 seconds remaining to pull off the minor seed upset. Iowa’s ability to score in bunches makes them a dangerous No. 9 seed.
No. 5 Vanderbilt 73, No. 12 McNeese 68
Vanderbilt entered the tournament as the hottest team in the SEC. McNeese, a popular upset pick, uses their disruptive defense to stay within striking distance. However, Vanderbilt’s size in the backcourt allows them to see over the McNeese traps. The Commodores’ efficiency at the rim and a double-double from their star center prove just enough to stave off the Cowboys' upset bid.
No. 4 Nebraska 71, No. 13 Troy 62
The Huskers' defense, ranked Top 20 in KenPom, holds Troy to a dismal 28% from beyond the arc. Nebraska's disciplined approach limits Troy to zero fast-break points. The atmosphere is electric as the Huskers finally shed the "winless" label, led by a 20-point performance from their senior point guard.
UPSET No. 11 VCU 72, No. 6 North Carolina 70
VCU’s "Havoc" defense returns to haunt the Tar Heels. UNC has struggled against high-pressure guards this season, and the Rams force UNC into 18 turnovers. VCU’s athleticism matches UNC on the boards, and the Rams win the game on a high-arching layup with 1.5 seconds left. This marks another early exit for a high-seeded blue blood, as VCU’s defensive energy simply overwhelms the Carolina backcourt.
No. 3 Illinois 80, No. 14 Penn 65
Illinois boasts the top offensive efficiency in the history of KenPom (131.1 points per 100 possessions). While they had some overtime struggles during the season, they make short work of Penn. The Fighting Illini use their massive frontcourt to dominate the boards 45-30. Penn’s smart perimeter play keeps the score respectable in the first half, but Illinois’ raw power inside is too much over time.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s 66, No. 10 Texas A&M 62
Randy Bennett’s Gaels are the masters of the "grind-it-out" victory. They force Texas A&M into a half-court game, neutralizing the Aggies' transition speed. Saint Mary’s ranks first in defensive rebounding percentage, which prevents Texas A&M from getting the second-chance points they usually rely on. The Gaels’ clinical execution in the final four minutes ensures they move on to face Houston.
No. 2 Houston 78, No. 15 Idaho 52
Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars play with a level of physicality that Idaho simply hadn't seen in the Big Sky. Houston’s No. 4-ranked defense holds the Vandals to just 18 points in the first half. The Cougars’ "no-middle" scheme forces Idaho into 21 turnovers, many of which led to thunderous transition dunks. Houston looks like a legitimate Final Four contender with their relentless effort on both ends.
- Favorites ML: 6-2
- Favorites ATS: 2-5
Midwest Region: First Round
No. 1 Michigan 84, No. 16 UMBC 61
The Wolverines dominated the Big Ten regular season, going 19-1. They own the country’s most efficient defense, led by Aday Mara’s shot-blocking presence. UMBC’s Cinderella hopes are dashed early as Michigan’s length contests every shot. The Wolverines assist on 22 of their 30 baskets, demonstrating why they are a title favorite.
UPSET No. 9 Saint Louis 74, No. 8 Georgia 71
The Billikens won the Atlantic 10 regular season and brought that confidence into the first round. Their senior-led backcourt outplays Georgia’s talented but younger guards in the final minutes. Saint Louis shoots 45% from three, while Georgia struggles with spacing against the Billikens' tight man-to-man defense. A late steal and score by Saint Louis seals the minor upset in Buffalo.
No. 5 Texas Tech 70, No. 12 Akron 64
Texas Tech’s defense is notoriously difficult to prepare for in a short window. Akron keeps the game close with gritty interior play, but the Red Raiders' physical advantage eventually takes over. Tech forces Akron into long scoring droughts in both halves. By winning the points-in-the-paint battle 36-22, the Red Raiders secure their spot in the Round of 32 against Alabama.
No. 4 Alabama 94, No. 13 Hofstra 80
In the highest-scoring game of the first round, Alabama’s third-ranked offense is simply too explosive for Hofstra to contain. The Crimson Tide attempt 35 threes, hitting 15 of them. Hofstra’s guards play heroically to keep the Pride within 10 for most of the game, but Alabama’s relentless pace and depth eventually wear them down in the final five minutes.
UPSET No. 11 Miami (OH) 65, No. 6 Tennessee 63
The 31-1 RedHawks are the official Cinderella of 2026. After a shocking loss in the MAC tournament, they play with a massive chip on their shoulder. Their top-10 defensive efficiency completely stifles Tennessee’s offense. The Volunteers struggle to find rhythm, shooting just 38% from the field. Miami (OH) wins on a gritty defensive stop as time expires, proving their regular-season record was no fluke.
No. 3 Virginia 68, No. 14 Wright State 54
Wright State enters with a high-octane offense, but they are forced into a 58-possession crawl. Virginia’s discipline prevents Wright State from getting any easy looks in transition. The Cavaliers’ methodical offense is efficient enough, led by a 15-point, 8-assist performance from their veteran point guard.
UPSET No. 10 Santa Clara 77, No. 7 Kentucky 75
Santa Clara’s veteran floor spacing and elite 3-point shooting prove to be too much for Kentucky’s young roster. The Broncos hit 11 threes and capitalize on the Wildcats' late-game execution errors. Kentucky has multiple chances to take the lead in the final minute, but misses free throws and a crucial turnover allow the Broncos to pull off the West Coast upset.
No. 2 Iowa State 82, No. 15 Tennessee State 60
Iowa State’s defense is a turnover-generating machine, ranking third nationally in defensive turnover rate. Tennessee State iss overwhelmed by the Cyclones’ constant ball pressure, leading to 24 points off turnovers. Iowa State’s balance is on full display, as four different players reached double figures. The Cyclones’ intensity never wavers, signaling they are ready for a deep run through the Midwest.
- Favorites ML: 5-3
- Favorites ATS: 1-5
Second Round predictions
No. 1 Duke 79, No. 8 Ohio State 68
Duke’s talent gap is too wide; Cameron Boozer posts another double-double.
No. 4 Kansas 74, No. 5 St. John’s 71
A classic clash. Kansas’ championship pedigree allows them to survive Pitino’s press.
No. 3 Michigan State 72, No. 6 Louisville 69
Izzo’s defense holds Louisville’s shooters to 33% from deep.
No. 2 UConn 77, No. 7 UCLA 65
The Huskies’ offensive versatility breaks UCLA’s defensive shell.
No. 1 Arizona 83, No. 8 Villanova 70
Too much speed. Arizona’s fast break is the difference-maker.
No. 4 Arkansas 78, No. 5 Wisconsin 72
Calipari’s athletes outrun the Badgers' methodical pace.
No. 3 Gonzaga 81, No. 6 BYU 75
The Zags win the West Coast rematch with superior interior scoring.
No. 2 Purdue 75, No. 10 Missouri 64
Purdue’s size is too much for Mizzou’s small-ball lineup.
No. 1 Florida 80, No. 9 Iowa 71
The Gators’ defense clamps down on the Hawkeyes’ transition game.
No. 4 Nebraska 70, No. 5 Vanderbilt 68
The dream continues! Nebraska reaches its first Sweet 16 on a buzzer-beater.
No. 3 Illinois 74, No. 11 VCU 65
Illinois’ size in the paint stops the VCU upset train.
No. 2 Houston 71, No. 7 Saint Mary’s 58
Houston’s rebounding dominance prevents a Saint Mary’s upset.
No. 1 Michigan 81, No. 9 Saint Louis 66
The Wolverines’ defense is far too tight for the Billikens.
No. 4 Alabama 88, No. 5 Texas Tech 82
Bama’s shooting volume eventually breaks the Red Raiders' defense.
No. 3 Virginia 66, No. 11 Miami (OH) 60
Experience wins. Virginia’s discipline ends the RedHawks’ run.
No. 2 Iowa State 76, No. 10 Santa Clara 68
The Cyclones’ defense is too intense for the Broncos’ shooters.
Sweet 16 predictions
No. 1 Duke 74, No. 4 Kansas 68
A battle of blue bloods. Duke’s free-throw shooting (Top 10 nationally) seals it.
No. 2 UConn 80, No. 3 Michigan State 73
UConn’s fifth-ranked offense finds gaps in the Spartan defense.
No. 1 Arizona 85, No. 4 Arkansas 78
The Wildcats’ depth proves too much in a high-intensity West Coast battle.
UPSET No. 3 Gonzaga 85, No. 2 Purdue 82
Gonzaga’s 30th-ranked offense finds just enough cracks in Purdue’s perimeter defense.
No. 1 Florida 77, No. 4 Nebraska 65
The Gators end the Huskers’ historic run with superior championship poise.
No. 2 Houston 70, No. 3 Illinois 64
Houston’s fourth-ranked defense suffocates the Illini in the second half.
No. 1 Michigan 84, No. 4 Alabama 80
A track meet in the Midwest. Michigan’s top-ranked defense gets the stops when they matter.
No. 2 Iowa State 69, No. 3 Virginia 61
Iowa State’s ball pressure forces Virginia into uncharacteristic turnovers.
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Elite Eight predictions
No. 1 Duke 75, No. 2 UConn 71
Duke officially returns to the Final Four after a high-stakes battle that sees Cameron Boozer record a statement double-double with 22 points and 11 rebounds. Boozer successfully outduels the Huskies’ physical frontcourt, using his agility to draw two early fouls on UConn's primary rim protector. The game is decided in the final 90 seconds, as Duke’s top-ranked defense forces two critical shot-clock violations to preserve their narrow lead and silence the pro-UConn crowd.
UPSET No. 3 Gonzaga 82, No. 1 Arizona 80
Mark Few returns to the Final Four by orchestrating a brilliant offensive strategy where the Zags' transition game successfully matches Arizona’s relentless pace. Graham Ike dominates the interior with 24 points, while the Gonzaga backcourt capitalized on Arizona’s 14 turnovers to generate 19 points on the break. Despite a late 8-0 surge by the Wildcats, Gonzaga’s Adam Miller sinks a cold-blooded mid-range jumper with six seconds remaining to seal the upset of the West Region's top seed.
UPSET No. 2 Houston 68, No. 1 Florida 66
Houston’s signature "no-middle" defensive scheme provides a masterclass in frustration, effectively halting the Gators' hopes for a back-to-back national title. The Cougars hold Florida to just 34% shooting from the floor and neutralize the Gators' fast-break opportunities by dominating the offensive glass for second-chance putbacks. In a frantic final sequence, Houston's ball pressure prevents Florida from even getting a clean shot off before the buzzer, securing Kelvin Sampson’s return to the sport's biggest stage.
No. 1 Michigan 76, No. 2 Iowa State 73
Yaxel Lendeborg ices the game at the free-throw line. Michigan’s superior positional size across the roster eventually breaks Iowa State’s pressure, sending Dusty May and the Wolverines to Indianapolis with their 32nd win of the season.
Final Four predictions
No. 1 Duke 77, No. 3 Gonzaga 74
This semifinal is a tactical masterpiece between Jon Scheyer and Mark Few. Gonzaga entered with the No. 13 offensive efficiency in the country, looking to push the pace. However, Duke’s defensive discipline—ranked No. 1 at KenPom—proves too suffocating. The Blue Devils focus on neutralizing Gonzaga’s transition game, forcing them into a half-court grind.
Cameron Boozer lives up to his lottery-pick billing, dominating the paint with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Duke’s ability to convert at the free-throw line (where they rank in the Top 10 nationally) in the final two minutes staves off a late 8-0 Zags run, securing Duke's spot in the final.
No. 1 Michigan 72, No. 2 Houston 69
In a game that feels more like a Big Ten/Big 12 physical slugfest, Michigan’s size finally wears down the relentless Houston Cougars. Houston’s defense makes life miserable for Michigan’s guards early on, but Aday Mara (7'3") provides a massive secondary scoring option when the perimeter shots aren't falling.
Houston has a chance to tie in the closing seconds, but Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg comes up with a massive block on a driving layup. Dusty May’s Wolverines use their depth to survive a 20-point performance from Houston’s backcourt, advancing to the title game.
National Championship prediction
No. 1 Duke 75, No. 1 Michigan 71
The 2026 title game features the two best teams in the country according to every analytical metric. Michigan controlls the paint early, but Duke’s versatile switching defense limited the Wolverines' outside looks. The game turns on a 10-2 run midway through the second half sparked by Duke freshman Patrick Ngongba II.
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg keeps the Wolverines close with several tough buckets late, but Duke’s Cameron Boozer is simply too much in the "clutch" window. Boozer seals the victory with a pair of free throws with six seconds left, finishing a historic freshman campaign with a title. Jon Scheyer officially ushers in a new era of Duke dominance, winning his first national championship as a head coach in a battle of No. 1 seeds.
Tournament Most Outstanding Player (MOP) prediction
Cameron Boozer, Duke
Boozer becomes the first freshman since Anthony Davis (2012) to dominate both ends of the floor so thoroughly, culminating in a 24-point championship performance where he neutralizes Michigan's 7'3" Aday Mara. His ability to handle the ball like a guard while rebounding like a traditional center allows Duke to play a versatile, positionless style that no opponent can fully solve.
March Madness All-Tournament Team prediction
- Cameron Boozer (Duke): 21.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 3.2 APG
- Aday Mara (Michigan): 14.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.8 BPG
- Braden Smith (Purdue): 13.5 PPG, 8.8 APG, 2.1 STL
- Graham Ike (Gonzaga): 19.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 62% FG
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan): 15.6 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.4 BLK
