A Rick Barnes-coached team hasn’t dropped four straight at any point this decade. In fact, the last time it happened was his first season at Tennessee back in 2015. The Vols will try to avoid repeating that when they welcome Louisville to Knoxville.
I expect this game to be played at the Volunteers' pace, which is why my Louisville vs. Tennessee predictions back the Under.
Here are my college basketball picks for December 16.
Louisville vs Tennessee prediction
Louisville vs Tennessee best bet: Under 157.5 (-110)
Even before you get into the matchup, the situational setup points to this game being played on Tennessee’s terms.
While that Vols identity has subtly shifted recently, it still typically means longer possessions, fewer easy looks, and a little bit of ugliness. That points to one direction.
Tennessee is coming off a losing streak with an extended layoff, and Barnes has historically been excellent at home in these spots. The market has reflected that sentiment too, with Louisville moving from a slight opener favorite to a small underdog. If you’re a spot bettor, this is close to a dream one.
While I lean toward Tennessee on the side, the more comfortable angle is the total. Last season’s matchup is a good highlight of why.
Pat Kelsey’s then-upstart Cardinals created the highest rate of unguarded catch-and-shoot jump shots of anyone against Tennessee — they just didn’t go in.
I’m dubious that would be the case again. Tennessee’s defensive structure shrinks driving lanes and contests without over-rotating, which reduces the possessions that lead to easy points.
Louisville can absolutely get hot from three, but that doesn’t mean it comes on quick possessions, and Tennessee is one of the better teams at making those looks less clean and less repeatable.
On the other end, Tennessee’s offense is capable, but it can also get stuck in the mud when opponents can stay in front and force half-court possessions.
If this turns into a grind with limited transition leakage, 157.5 is simply a big number. I’d play to 154.5.
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Louisville vs Tennessee same-game parlay
It should be quite a difficult environment — especially at the start — for Louisville to contend, and it hasn't exactly responded well this season in those spots against Arkansas or Cincinnati.
I need to see it before I believe that’s changed. Even if Louisville ultimately wins, I think it comes down to Kelsey's coaching adjustments and a second-half comeback.
I end things with Mikel Brown to go Under his assists total, and that’s more of a reflection of how I believe he attacks this game rather than anything else.
Louisville needs him to play the role of attacker rather than facilitator, as this game cries out for dribble creation. I think that should lower his assist volume.
Louisville vs Tennessee SGP
- Under 157.5
- Tennessee first-half moneyline
- Mikel Brown Under 4.5 assists
Louisville vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Louisville +2.5 | Tennessee -2.5
- Moneyline: Louisville +125 | Tennessee -150
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Louisville vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the game total Under in 20 of their last 38 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Louisville vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Tuesday, December 16, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisville vs Tennessee key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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