The Indiana Hoosiers head to East Lansing to face the No. 12-ranked Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night.
Tom Izzo's squad has been winning with defense, which is why my Indiana vs. Michigan State predictions lean toward a lower-scoring game.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on January 13.
Indiana vs Michigan State prediction
Indiana vs Michigan State best bet: Under 145 (-110)
The Indiana Hoosiers have an explosive offense but don't push the pace and have struggled at times on the road. We saw that on trips to Kentucky and Minnesota, where they were held below 65 points.
The Michigan State Spartans defend significantly better than those schools, ranking third in adjusted defense per KenPom, and they do a great job controlling tempo and slowing games to a crawl.
The Hoosiers attempt threes at a Top 20 rate and will have a tough time knocking down those shots in a hostile environment against an MSU squad that defends the arc very well.
The Spartans could also have issues putting up points. They're 241st in the country in turnover rate while ranking 148th in 2-point percentage (52.4%). The Hoosiers are 15th in the country in opponent 2PT% (45%) and 34th in opponent 3-point percentage (29.8%).
Bart Torvik, KenPom, and Haslametrics all project the total between 139 and 141 points, which gives us great value on the Under 145.
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Indiana vs Michigan State same-game parlay
The Spartans are 14-2 with wins against Arkansas, Kentucky, UNC, and Iowa. They should be able to win at home against the Hoosiers, who are 0-3 in Quad 1 games.
Lamar Wilkerson leads Indiana in scoring with 20.3 ppg and also does a good job on the glass, grabbing 4+ boards in five-straight games.
Indiana vs Michigan State SGP
- Under 145
- Michigan State moneyline
- Lamar Wilkerson Over 3.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Hoos house
This is a fantastic value if IU is able to keep things close in a lower-scoring contest. Even if it can't pull off the road upset, the Hoosiers have the depth and talent to stay within 7.5 points of an MSU squad that is 3-5 against the spread in its last eight.
Indiana vs Michigan State SGP
- Under 145
- Michigan State moneyline
- Lamar Wilkerson Over 3.5 rebounds
- Indiana +7.5
Indiana vs Michigan State odds
- Spread: Indiana +7.5 | Michigan State -7.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +265 | Michigan State -330
- Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145
Indiana vs Michigan State betting trend to know
The Under is 27-10 in the Spartans' last 37 games (+16.00 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Indiana vs Michigan State
| Location | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Tuesday, January 13, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Indiana vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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