Houston vs Dayton Odds, Picks and Predictions: Contrasting Styles Clash in Charleston

We’ve reached the final of the Shriners’ Children’s Charleston Classic and we have a dynamite matchup to break down when the Dayton Flyers meet the No. 6-ranked Houston Cougars. 

Dayton advanced to the final after a stunning 88-81 win over St. John's. Meanwhile, Houston snuck past a much taller Utah group 76-66 and moved to 5-0 on the season.

Keep reading as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds and give you my best free college basketball picks for Houston vs. Dayton on November 19.

Houston vs Dayton best odds

Houston vs Dayton picks and predictions

Sunday night’s championship tilt should be a fun contrast between the long-range shooting prowess of the Dayton Flyers and the suffocating defense of the Houston Cougars.

Watching Dayton pick up the tempo and drain 41% from downtown against the Johnnies Friday afternoon was a great sign.

The Flyers usually walk the ball up the floor, but they adapted to their situation, picked up the pace thanks to some timely steals, and scored 50 points in the second half to seal the win.

Dayton used great ball movement, knocked down their open looks, and torched St. John's for 41% from downtown, which was the difference in this contest.

Houston is a talented side and can win games in several ways. Mostly, their suffocating defense is the catalyst — the Cougars average 24.6 points per game from turnovers and many consider Houston to have the most relentless defense in the nation.

The Cougars' defense is their bread and butter and it's why they won their game against Utah. Houston shot horribly from everywhere, won the battle of the boards by one but had 10 swipes and generally made life miserable for the Utes' gargantuan inside game as well as their ballhandlers on the perimeter.

While both groups find different ways to score the basketball, each school relies quite a bit on points off turnovers. They combine for nearly 40 points per game in that area and while that usually gives them an edge over their competition, these teams take care of the ball, which might indicate a low-scoring affair.

Dayton has a short seven-man rotation and they’ve played quality competition this week. Their legs must be tired, and they'll have to fight like hell on the defensive end, negatively affecting their usually strong production from downtown.

That could make scoring points difficult for the Flyers, and the relentless Houston defense won’t make that task any easier.

Houston plays relentless defense and scores nearly a 1/3 of their points from opponents' turnovers. Their 51.3% effective field goal percentage is deceptive because they mostly score layups, which means they aren’t great shooters from inside the arc and are just average from beyond it.

All in all, I like the Under here. Dayton is a good team but they'll have difficulty scoring the ball tonight. The relentless Houston defensive pressure will take its toll, and the Cougars' slow, methodical half-court offense based on good ball movement will tire Dayton and expose the Flyers' lack of depth.

The Flyers will be gassed, their legs will be gone, and the triples won’t fall. Houston's shooters aren’t accurate enough to make up the difference against a better-than-average Dayton half-court defense.

My best bet: Under 131.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Houston vs Dayton same-game parlay

Under 131.5

Dayton +13

+280 at BetRivers

BetRivers doesn’t have many SGP markets for this contest, but they're giving us the best number on the total, which I'll pair with Dayton +13.

My best bet is all about the lack of scoring and points off turnovers. The Cougars will cause problems but I don't see them getting to their season average mark of 77.2 points per game. This team doesn't shoot the ball well and is just 2-3 ATS this season.

Dayton is 3-1 ATS, and unlike Houston, even if the triples aren’t falling, the Flyers are much more capable shooters from inside the arc and are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation. The Flyers are an above-average defense playing an offense with streaky shooters and terrible from the charity stripe. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs Dayton spread and Over/Under analysis

These non-conference games sometimes produce some lopsided moneylines. This contest isn’t any different, and unless you're willing to plunk down $1,111 to win $100, taking Houston to win isn’t a wise wager.

Alternatively, Dayton is +650, and while a $650 payout would be enticing, a LOT would have to go right for that to happen. Upsets do indeed happen, and maybe the best way to bet that would be in-game.

BetRivers was the only sportsbook to open the game at Dayton +13 and that number hasn’t budged. It’s the best number in a sea of +12.5s.

The total opened at 131.5 (-110) at BetRivers, but some of the sharper books — like Pinnacle — opened at 132 (-110), and that number has dipped to 130.5 across the market.

If I have a lean at all, it’s finding a moneyline edge for Houston. Dayton doesn’t have much depth, and they might keep the first-half score much closer than the 7.5-point first-half spread. That could drive the moneyline toward the Flyers, and maybe we can catch Houston at -150 or better. 

Houston vs Dayton betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Houston's last six games as a favorite of 13 points or more. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Dayton.

Houston vs Dayton game info

Houston vs Dayton key injuries

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