The No. 3 Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 19 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.
The Red Raiders have gone 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games, and my Duke vs. Texas Tech predictions are fading them against the Blue Devils, who have proven themselves against ranked foes.
Here are my best college basketball picks for this clash between two of the best teams in the country on December 20.
Duke vs Texas Tech prediction
Duke vs Texas Tech best bet: Duke -8.5 (-110)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 8-3 but lost all three of their games against ranked foes, while the Duke Blue Devils are 11-0 with four wins against ranked opponents.
The Red Raiders have a strong offense, but their half-court sets are too predictable with JT Toppin (21.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game) on the interior and spot-up shooters surrounding him.
The Red Raiders are 63rd in the country in 3-point rate while knocking them down at a 37.6% clip. If those outside shots aren't falling, they struggle to generate points since they don't attack the rim or get to the line.
Don't expect those shots to drop against a Duke squad that ranks 10th in the country in 3-point defense (27%). The Blue Devils also rank second in opponent two-point percentage (40.4%), and are third in adjusted defense per KenPom.
They have the ability to limit Texas Tech's offense while getting buckets on the other end of the floor. With Cameron Boozer (23.3 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 56.3 FG%) leading the way, they rank 11th in the nation in adjusted offense and 13th in effective field goal percentage (58.4%).
The Red Raiders are 159th in opponent eFG% (50.7%) while sitting outside the Top 200 in defensive rebounding rate and opponent turnover rate. They allowed 90 points to Northern Colorado on Tuesday and also surrendered more than 80 points against Arkansas, Purdue, Wake Forest, and Illinois.
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Duke vs Texas Tech same-game parlay
The Blue Devils can slow foes down to a crawl, ranking 356th in average defensive possession. They've been playing fast and loose against bad teams, but all four of their games against ranked opponents went well below the total.
They held Michigan State, Florida, and Kansas to 66 points or fewer while limiting a fast-paced, efficient Arkansas offense to 71 points on 40% shooting. That has me leaning towards the Under against a Texas Tech squad that is 3-6-0 to the Under in its last nine games.
Texas Tech has gotten off to some slow starts, which include double-digit halftime deficits against Purdue and Illinois. Since I'm backing the Blue Devils to cover a sizable full-game spread, it makes sense to also back them at -4.5 on the first half spread in this SGP.
Duke vs Texas Tech SGP
- Duke -8.5
- Under 153.5
- Duke 1H -4.5
Duke vs Texas Tech odds
- Spread: Duke -8.5 | Texas Tech +8.5
- Moneyline: Duke -425 | Texas Tech +325
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5
Duke vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
The Blue Devils have covered the first half spread in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI) while the Red Raiders have only covered the 1H spread in 16 of their last 38 contests (-8.45 Units / -19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Duke vs Texas Tech
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Saturday, December 20, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Duke vs Texas Tech key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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