Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder, and the model has highlighted a few plays that stand out.
After breaking down the numbers and stacking our projections against the current market lines, we’ve pinpointed the spots offering the most value.
These Warriors vs. Thunder predictions aren’t based on guesswork — they’re driven by the data.
If you’re building your betting card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for Saturday, March 7.
Warriors vs Thunder computer picks for March 7
 Warriors |
 Thunder |
|---|---|
| Podziemski o15.5 points -120 |
Gilgeous-Alexander u31.5 points -112 |
| Green o1.5 3-pointers -130 |
Williams u9.5 rebounds -120 |
| Horford u6.5 rebounds +125 |
Dort o1.5 3-pointers -170 |
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Warriors computer picks
Brandin Podziemski Over 15.5 points (-120)
Projection: 15.5 points
Brandin Podziemski has been on a hot streak, averaging 18.4 points over his last five games — 5.8 points higher than his season average.
Adding to the favorable setup, opposing starting point guards have attempted 7.7 threes per game against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, the highest mark in the league, creating a matchup ripe for Podziemski to capitalize on.
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Draymond Green Over 1.5 3-pointers (-130)
Projection: 1.7 3-pointers
The Golden State Warriors should see an uptick in possessions today facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have played at the third-fastest pace in the league over their last five games.
That faster tempo could help Draymond Green, who has hit the Over on 1.5 made threes in four of his last 10 games.
Al Horford Over 6.5 rebounds (+125)
Projection: 6.5 rebounds
The Warriors rank seventh in the league in road offensive rebounding, averaging 13.4 boards per game over their last five contests.
That extra activity on the glass creates a good opportunity for Al Horford, who has gone Over 6.5 rebounds in four of his last 10 games.
Thunder computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points (-112)
Projection: 31.1 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been clearing this scoring line consistently, going Under 31.5 points in six of his last 10 games. While he remains one of the league’s most dangerous offensive players, tonight’s matchup against the Warriors presents a few factors that could keep him below that number again.
Golden State’s style of play often forces opposing stars into tougher, contested looks rather than allowing easy trips to the rim or free-throw line — areas where SGA usually piles up points. If those opportunities are limited and the Thunder offense remains balanced, there’s a strong path for him to finish just short of the 31.5-point mark again tonight.
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Jaylin Williams Under 9.5 rebounds (-120)
Projection: 8.5 rebounds
The Thunder have struggled on the offensive glass, ranking as the second-worst team in the NBA this season.
That trend aligns with Jaylin Williams going Under 9.5 rebounds in eight of his last 10 games and coming up short tonight on this prop against the Dubs.
Lu Dort Over 1.5 3-pointers (-170)
Projection: 2.1 3-pointers
The Thunder have been one of the more aggressive teams from deep lately, ranking seventh in three-point attempts over the last 15 games.
That creates a favorable setup against the Warriors, who have allowed opposing starting small forwards to shoot a league-high 47% from beyond the arc this season.
With that in mind, Lu Dort has a solid path to cash the Over on 1.5 made threes which is a number he’s cleared in five of his last 10 games.
How to watch Warriors vs Thunder tonight
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Saturday, March 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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