A heated rivalry is renewed as the Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Nikola Jokic has been at his best against Anthony Edwards and Co., and my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions expect another monster game from the Joker.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this first-round Western Conference showdown as the Timberwolves and Nuggets meet in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1 prediction
Timberwolves vs Nuggets best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 points+rebounds+assists (-120)
Nikola Jokic averaged just under this combo line in the regular season, going for 51.3 PRA. He averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and a career-best 10.7 assists, stuffing the stat sheet with regularity.
In four regular-season matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jokic averaged a whopping 35.8 points, 15 rebounds, and 11.3 assists. He posted 52+ PRA three times and finished with 50 in the other.
Jokic finished with 56/16/15 on Christmas, cruising past this line with scoring alone. Last season, he delivered a 61/10/10 performance against the Wolves, and two seasons ago, he averaged 53 PRA at home against the Wolves. His last two season-highs in points have come at the expense of Minnesota.
The Denver Nuggets All-Star point-center has averaged 47.9 PRA across 12 playoff tilts with Minnesota, including a 49.1 average in seven home games. He’s gone for 52+ in three of seven in front of the home crowd, and I expect him to do the same on Saturday as he looks to get his team off to a hot start in the postseason.
Jokic may draw the assignment of stalwart defender Rudy Gobert, but he had no problem stuffing the stat sheet when he faced Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama in the closing games of the regular season.
Jokic can spread the floor with his outside shooting and make Gobert uncomfortable in space. He can also make Gobert pay with his elite passing abilities.
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1 same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards enjoyed the best statistical season of his career behind a 37.4 PRA average and a career-high 28.8 points per game. Edwards has been excellent against Denver over the last two seasons, going for 37+ in six of his last seven matchups and 40+ five times.
The Timberwolves finished the season with a 6-4 ATS record over their last 10 games, despite a number of key injuries, including those to Edwards and Jaden McDaniels.
The Nuggets won their last 10 games but covered the spread only five times. The Wolves have won or kept the score within six points in two of the last three head-to-head matchups with the Nuggets, and I’m calling for a competitive game between familiar foes.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets SGP
- Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 PRA
- Anthony Edwards Over 36.5 PRA
- Timberwolves +6.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Triple-Double Machine!
Jokic recorded an NBA-high 34 triple-doubles this season, matching his career high while playing only 65 games, meaning he reached this statistical milestone in more games than not. He did so in three of four games against the Timberwolves.
Edwards led Minnesota in steals per game at 1.4, and he recorded multiple swipes in 24 of 61 appearances. He recorded three steals in each of his last two games against the Wolves. Edwards finished with at least 27 points in 34 of 61 games, including a 44-point performance in his last trip to Ball Arena.
Minnesota hit the Over in four of its last five games to end the season, and Denver did so in eight of its last 10. With both teams close to full strength, I expect a high-scoring affair in Mile High.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets SGP
- Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double
- Anthony Edwards Over 1.5 steals
- Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points
- Over 231.5
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds for Game 1
- Spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-115) | Nuggets -6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +210 | Nuggets -260
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 | Under 231.5
Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, April 18, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video, TSN4 |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
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