It’s a showdown of No. 1 seeds tonight in Motor City, with the Detroit Pistons trying to cement their NBA Finals credentials against the depleted but relentless Oklahoma City Thunder.
Some of Detroit’s flaws were exposed earlier this week in a double-digit loss to the Spurs, and my Thunder vs. Pistons predictions expect OKC to put up a fight despite key absences, with Cason Wallace doing his best SGA impression.
Take a closer look at this marquee matchup with my free NBA picks on Wednesday, February 25.
Thunder vs Pistons prediction
Thunder vs Pistons best bet: Cason Wallace Over 11.5 points (-120)
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams on the shelf, the stage was set for a monster Chet Holmgren stretch. Instead, it’s increasingly been the Cason Wallace show.
Wallace torched the Raptors on Tuesday with 27 points on 11-for-16 shooting, and that’s where Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault went when he needed a bucket. The third-year guard is averaging 14.2 points per game in February, and he’s 8-for-13 from beyond the arc in his last two.
Wallace has cashed this Over in five of his past six road outings, and he’ll be the X-factor against a physical Detroit Pistons defense tonight.
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Thunder vs Pistons same-game parlay
Wallace has played 30-plus minutes in three straight, and the heavy lifting should continue. This week’s scoring tear hasn’t taken anything away from his defense, and he’s grabbed 4+ rebounds in six of his last seven contests.
Even on the second night of a back-to-back set, I see OKC bringing the fight. The visitors are 7-2-1 against the spread in their past 10 games and 21-7 straight up on the road. Cade Cunningham is coming off a 5-for-26 dud against the Spurs, and now he’ll have to deal with the Thunder’s perimeter stoppers.
Thunder vs Pistons SGP
- Cason Wallace Over 11.5 points
- Cason Wallace Over 3.5 rebounds
- Thunder +8.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Boards bonanza!
With two terrific defensive teams, I’m banking on a lot of missed shots, and this SGP taps into a feeding frenzy on the glass at both ends. Cade has grabbed 6+ rebounds in five straight, and Jalen Duren has had 13+ in consecutive contests, while OKC had a 49-34 rebounding edge over Toronto last night.
Thunder vs Pistons SGP
- Cade Cunningham Over 5.5 rebounds
- Jalen Duren Over 11.5 rebounds
- Cason Wallace Over 3.5 rebounds
- Lu Dort Over 3.5 rebounds
Thunder vs Pistons odds
- Spread: Thunder +8 (-110) | Pistons -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder +240 | Pistons -300
- Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Pistons betting trend to know
The Pistons are just 8-13 ATS against Western Conference opponents this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pistons.
How to watch Thunder vs Pistons
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Wednesday, February 25, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Pistons latest injuries
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