The Miami Heat are finding their rhythm after a slow start, but they'll have their hands full tonight against a Golden State Warriors squad riding a five-game winning streak.
With Golden State firing on all cylinders offensively and Miami running on fumes after Wednesday's overtime win, my Heat vs. Warriors prediction backs the Over on the 233.5-point total.
Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center, with the Warriors listed as 7.5-point home favorites.
For more angles, check out our free NBA picks for Thursday, Nov. 5.
TOP PICK
Heat vs Warriors prediction: Over 233.5
The Golden State Warriors are now averaging 117.5 points per game following their recent surge, so this full-game Over is playable to 235.5.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat bring a nice bump in pace and have surrendered 126.3 ppg over their last three contests. Miami is also allowing opponents to shoot 49.0% from the field on the road, including 40.1% from 3-point range.
Miami is playing its third game in four nights Thursday, including the second half of a back-to-back. In Wednesday's overtime win against the Clippers, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Davion Mitchell each logged 40+ minutes, while valuable reserve Pelle Larsson played 35 minutes off the bench.
COVERS INTEL: Since the start of the 2025-26 season, the Over is 24-10 (70.6% hit rate) in Golden State's games where the Warriors have had 2-3 preceding days off.
Heat vs Warriors combo
Golden State has scored between 119 and 134 points in three games during its current winning streak, while the Heat bring a nice bump in pace (108.0 possessions per road game).
On the second night of a back-to-back, Miami will struggle to keep up defensively with a well-rested Warriors squad. Expect plenty of scoring opportunities for Golden State against a tired Heat defense.
Heat vs Warriors combo
- Over 233.5
- Warriors -7.5
- Warriors team total Over 120.5
Heat vs Warriors player props
Heat player prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 45.5 points + rebounds + assists
Miami is a fairly sizable road underdog, with an implied team total suggesting a more subdued night than usual for its front-line players.
If the game plays out as oddsmakers expect, it wouldn't be surprising to see Antetokounmpo's night end a bit early, especially with Miami still having two more games on its West Coast swing.
Warriors player prop: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
Like the rest of his teammates, Yaxel Lendeborg will enjoy a valuable rest advantage over any defender he faces and enters Thursday averaging 34.6 PRA since the second game of the season.
The Heat also rank 27th in offensive efficiency rating allowed to small forwards (25.9) while surrendering the second-most rebounds (9.5) and most assists (6.3) per game to the position.
The additional possessions created by Miami's pace of play should also work in Lendeborg's favor, as should the Heat's tendency to allow efficient shooting from opponents on the road.
- Top picks: 5-2, +2.89 units
- Combos: 3-4, +7.53 units
Heat vs Warriors odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Heat +7.5 | Warriors -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
- Moneyline: Heat 30% | Warriors 71%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Heat vs Warriors trend
The Over has hit in each of Miami's last five games as an underdog, while last season's meeting at Chase Center produced 247 total points. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Heat vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026 |
| Tip off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Heat vs Warriors latest injuries
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