The NBA’s Northwest Division is a wagon, and two of those teams will do battle when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder visit Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans.
These teams have split the previous two meetings, with the road team prevailing both times in the NBA odds.
Can OKC keep the trend going or does New Orleans value as a home dog? Check out my best NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pelicans on March 26.
Thunder vs Pelicans predictions
My best bet: Trey Murphy III Under 16.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Everything about this matchup is awesome.
Heading into tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 49-21 and in second place in the Western Conference standings, one game out of first and five games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans, who sit at 44-27.
However, the Pels have been on a tear lately. They rank second in net rating this month, boasting a 9-2 record.
Unfortunately, New Orleans has been dealt a bit of a blow as Brandon Ingram will be out for a couple of weeks with a knee injury. Ingram is the Pels’ most dynamic scorer and not having him will hurt against a Thunder team that is strong defensively.
OKC’s roster is long and athletic, and the Thunder use that athleticism to alter shots and disrupt passing lanes. As a result, the Thunder rank fifth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent effective field goal percentage, second in blocks per game, and lead the NBA in steals.
All that has me looking at the Under points for a Pelicans’ player prop. Specifically, Trey Murphy III, whose points prop is sitting at 16.5.
Murphy has been a part of this Pelicans surge this month. He started the month putting up 28 or more points in three games while shooting 41% from 3-point range over 11 contests. However, a deeper dive shows why there is value in the Under tonight.
Those three scoring outbursts came against Indiana, Toronto, and Atlanta — all of whom possess some of the sorriest defenses in the NBA. He’s also coming off a game against Detroit, where he went 0-for-9 from 3-point range and scored just eight points.
In fact, despite his recent success, Murphy has stayed below 16.5 points in six of his last nine games. In his lone meeting against OKC this season back on January 26, the Thunder held him to just six points.
Take Murphy to go Under his points total tonight.
Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Trey Murphy III Under 16.5 points
Zion Williamson Under 5.5 assists
Jonas Valanciunas Over 8.5 rebounds
Along with our best bet, let's fade Zion Williamson, who averages 5.0 assists per game this season and has recorded four dimes or fewer in nine of his last 13 games.
The one area where the Thunder have issues is on the glass. Surprisingly, OKC has the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA and struggles against traditional opposing bigs. Pels' center Jonas Valanciunas has seen a dip in his rebounding numbers lately, but he still averages 9.2 rebounds per game and eclipsed 8.5 in both matchups against OKC this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Pelicans odds and trends
Thunder vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -1.5 | New Orleans +1.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -115 | New Orleans -105
- Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223
Thunder vs. Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pelican opened this Northwest Division matchup as 1.5-point home underdogs and have seen enough action to move to +1 as of Tuesday afternoon. This would be closer to a pick'em if Ingram were available.
- The Pelicans won the first meeting in November by a score of 110-106 as 3.5-point road dogs. The Thunder responded with a 107-83 win as 1.5-point road favorites on January 23.
- The total opened at 223 and has been bet up slightly to 223.5.
- Both previous meetings played well below this number.
Thunder vs. Pelicans betting trend to know
The Pelicans have covered the first-quarter spread in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.25 units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.
Thunder vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bounce TV, Bally Sports OK |
Not intended for use in MA.
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