The Oklahoma City Thunder may have lapsed into cruise control briefly, but the defending champs have their swagger back as they visit the Miami Heat tonight – and that’s bad news for the rest of the league.
OKC brings a five-game win streak to South Beach, and my Thunder vs. Heat predictions point to the visitors’ bench grinding down a Miami team that will be shorthanded in the backcourt.
Take a closer look at this January 17 matchup with my free NBA picks and betting tips.
Thunder vs Heat prediction
Thunder vs Heat best bet: Ajay Mitchell Over 12.5 points (+100)
Ajay Mitchell has become such a valuable weapon off the bench for the Oklahoma City Thunder, delivering consistent offense and allowing Mark Daigneault to keep Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s workload at a manageable 33.3 MPG.
After a quieter December, Mitchell has found this rhythm again this month, and I love the Over on his points prop tonight against the Miami Heat. He’s averaging 14.8 PPG so far in 2026 and finished with 17 points on Thursday against the Houston Rockets.
The visitors’ second unit feels like the X-factor here, and Mitchell is the one dynamic bucket-getter in that group. He’s also shown a willingness to be more aggressive on the road, where his scoring jumps to 15.2 PPG, with a 37% mark from 3-point range.
The Miami defense represents a favorable matchup, too. The hosts rank in the bottom third of the NBA in points allowed per game (117.8), and they’ve coughed up 119+ points in five straight contests.
Mitchell has gone past this number in four of his last five outings, and he poured in 16 points on 8-for-15 shooting in last weekend’s win over the Heat. He’s poised to have a similar impact in this rematch, and the absence of Miami’s Davion Mitchell leaves the hosts without much bite on the perimeter to bother the OKC guards.
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Thunder vs Heat same-game parlay
The Heat’s 14-7 mark at Kaseya Center looks persuasive here until you remember that the Thunder are 15-4 on the road. OKC covered the spread in statement wins over the Spurs and Rockets this week, while Miami has lost four of its past five contests and has injury doubts around Tyler Herro. I’m laying the points in this SGP.
I’ll double down on the Thunder bench with the Over on Cason Wallace's points tally. Wallace hasn’t chipped in with much scoring this month, but he drilled a pair of 3-pointers in consecutive games. He’s also a candidate for easy transition baskets against the fast-paced Heat.
Thunder vs Heat SGP
- Ajay Mitchell Over 12.5 points
- Thunder -10.5
- Cason Wallace Over 6.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Bam turns provider
Bam Adebayo has dished 4+ dimes in three straight games, including the Heat’s loss in OKC last Sunday. Look for a further uptick in his playmaking if Herro is ruled out, with Bam operating as a steady passing hub at the top of the key.
Thunder vs Heat SGP
- Ajay Mitchell Over 12.5 points
- Thunder -10.5
- Cason Wallace Over 6.5 points
- Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists
Thunder vs Heat odds
- Spread: Thunder -10.5 | Heat +10.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -450 | Heat +350
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Thunder vs Heat betting trend to know
The Thunder have won each of the last five meetings with the Heat. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Heat.
How to watch Thunder vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Saturday, January 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN |
Thunder vs Heat latest injuries
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