The Miami Heat have dropped four straight games, and they’ll look to get back on track Monday when they host the San Antonio Spurs, winners of five straight.
The home team will be close to full strength, and my Spurs vs Heat predictions expect Miami to keep it close against the powerhouse visitors.
Here are my free NBA picks for this cross-conference showdown from Kaseya Center on Monday, March 23.
Spurs vs Heat prediction
Spurs vs Heat best bet: Heat +4.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat have played great basketball at home this season, winning 23 and covering in 36 games at Kaseya Center. Miami sports the second-highest cover percentage as a home underdog, going 7-2 against the spread.
Miami just covered in a one-point loss to Houston, and that was without Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez, and Andrew Wiggins.
All three are expected to suit up, and they'll all play a part in helping the Heat's Top 10 home offense keep up with the San Antonio Spurs' explosive offense, while Bam Adebayo can focus on containing Victor Wembanyama.
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Spurs vs Heat same-game parlay
The Heat rank 10th in offensive rating at home, while the Spurs rank ninth on the road.
Bam has been on a heater, and Miami has a plethora of scoring options to rack up points. The Spurs will have Stephon Castle back, and Devin Vassell could return as well, giving San Antonio extra firepower.
Since scoring a historic 83 points, Adebayo has averaged 25.3 points across his last four outings, going for 22+ three times. He leads the Heat in minutes in that span, clocking in at a whopping 39.1.
Spurs vs Heat SGP
- Heat +4.5
- Over 243
- Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Bunch of buckets
Wemby has averaged 28.7 points across his last nine games, going for 27+ in six of them. He finished with 27 points in his first matchup with the Heat, and he’ll need to be at his best to keep up with a hot Miami offense.
Castle will return following a two-game absence, and Andrew Wiggins is expected to play after eight games on the sidelines.
Castle scored 21 against the Heat earlier in the season, and he averaged 21.8 points in five games before sustaining his hip injury. Wiggins scored 12+ in seven of eight contests before injuring his toe, and he dropped 24 in his first meeting with the Spurs.
Spurs vs Heat SGP
- Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 points
- Victor Wembanyama Over 26.5 points
- Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points
- Andrew Wiggins Over 11.5 points
Spurs vs Heat odds
- Spread: Spurs -4.5 | Heat +4.5
- Moneyline: Spurs -200 | Heat +165
- Over/Under: Over 243 | Under 243
Spurs vs Heat betting trend to know
The Miami Heat have covered the first-half spread in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Heat.
How to watch Spurs vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, March 23, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock/NBCSN |
Spurs vs Heat latest injuries
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