The reigning NBA champions will start the second half of their title defense campaign by hosting the Indiana Pacers at the Staples Center.
Led by LeBron James' MVP-caliber start, L.A. has gotten out of the gates well, currently third in the Western Conference, despite a quick turnaround from the bubble and an injury to Anthony Davis.
Can they start the second half of their schedule with an NBA betting win? Find out with our free Pacers vs. Lakers picks and predictions for March 12.
Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: T.J. Warren F (Out), Caris LeVert G (Out).
Lakers: Anthony Davis PF (Out), Marc Gasol C (Questionable), Alex Caruso SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Lakers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles bounced between -4.5 and -5 since FanDuel posted this number Thursday night, and as of 7:45 p.m. ET tonight, L.A. is at the opener of -4.5. However, it's practically all Lakers action, at 82 percent of spread bets and 85 percent of spread money. The total moved from 217.5 to 216.5 and back, with 63 percent of bets/67 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for the Lakers. Since Davis came out of the lineup, L.A. has been a shell of itself, winning just three of its last 10 games and going 4-6 ATS during that span. While the Lakers won't be able to count on Davis coming out of the break, they will surely be hoping for a rejuvenated James, after he played sparingly in the All-Star game.
The Pacers, similarly, limped into the break, having gone 1-5 over their last six and 0-6 ATS. At just 16-19 SU and 14-21 ATS on the season, Indiana has disappointed all season long as a member of the Eastern Conference's middle class. While help is on the way, with T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert expected back at some point, it won't help the Pacers against a rested James and the Lakers.
It would take a fairly sizable spread for us to go against LeBron in such a favorable spot. Should L.A. resemble the team that struggled over the first-half finish line, we'll begin to be skeptical of it until Davis returns. After an extended break, however, the Lakers should once again look like champions.
PREDICTION: Lakers -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Given the Lakers' recent form and their strength as a team coming on the defensive end, where they rank first in defensive rating and efficiency, it shouldn't be too surprising to see a low total here. At 14-23 O/U on the year, the Lakers have routinely ground out games—something that remained true during their run into the break, where they went 4-6 O/U over their last 10. Without Davis's hyper-efficient offense, it's difficult to see L.A. improving its middling scoring or changing its recipe.
Indiana has been more reliable for Over bettors in 2021, at 20-14-1 O/U and 7-3 in its last 10. However, it hasn't exactly been lethal scoring either, sitting right alongside L.A. in the bottom half of the league in both offensive rating and efficiency. All-Star Domantas Sabonis will be able to dictate Indiana's game in this one, but it won't be enough for us to trust two average scoring teams to push a relatively low total Over.
PREDICTION: Under 216.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Lakers are reportedly in the market for another big, due to the struggles of veteran Marc Gasol. The Spaniard's slow-footedness, combined with Montrezl Harrell's aversion to defense (and physical limitations, in fairness) as well as Davis's injury has left L.A.'s paint susceptible in recent weeks.
The Lakers allowed some juiced stat lines to bigs heading into the break, including a 23/16/10 line from Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo's 16/10/6, Rudy Gobert's 18/9 and Enes Kanter's 11/17/3. Now they'll have to defend one of the league's most skilled bigs in Sabonis, who is averaging career highs in points and assists in 2021. Only Jokic averages more total touches and touches at the elbow per game than Sabonis, who has been empowered to have Indiana's offense run through him.
Sabonis will face little resistance doing just that in this one, as L.A. presents a hugely favorable matchup for the American-born Lithuanian.
PREDICTION: Domantas Sabonis Over 37.5 pts+rebs+asts (+103)
Pacers vs Lakers betting card
- Lakers -4.5 (-110)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Domantas Sabonis Over 37.5 pts+rebs+asts (+103)
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