The Memphis Grizzlies are waking up from their early-season hibernation. After a Ja Morant injury and health-and-safety layoff, Memphis has strung together a 5-1 ATS record in its last six games.
Also building some traction after a slow start are the Denver Nuggets, who have won five of their past six games, including four straight.
One of these teams' momentum will break when they clash for NBA betting action Friday, March 12. Find out who you should back with our Nuggets vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions.
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Nuggets: Facundo Campazzo PG (Out).
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen SG (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDenver is holding steady as a 3-point favorite today at TwinSpires, where as of 5:30 p.m., ticket count is 4/1 and money 3/1 on the Nuggets. The total is out to 229.5 from a 227.5 opener, with ticket count and money both running 4/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Grizzlies have had a solid week so far. Memphis spanked the Wizards again 127-112 Wednesday night, and is getting a timetable for Jaren Jackson Jr.'s return for the first time all season.
But for now, Memphis must worry about Denver and the NBA's fourth-best offense invading FedEx Forum Friday night. The Nuggets have won five of six games, including a complete stomping of Milwaukee (128-97) on the road.
In fact, all of Denver's current four-game win streak has been on the road, where it's 12-8 on the season overall. For the first time all season, the Nuggets are closer to homecourt than the playoff fringe. They continue to get MVP-type production from Nikola Jokic and are enjoying Jamal Murray's return to bubble form (29 ppg on 56.6 percent shooting in the last 11 games).
Memphis has had a spirited stretch and is proving itself a fixture in the West playoff race, but Denver's ceiling as a team is much higher—and it's finally hitting its stride.
The Nuggets (aside from the usually sluggish-to-start Jokic) were visibly tired early in the season, and the All-Star break was likely a welcome respite for the team with arguably the most psychologically-draining bubble experience. We have faith in them continuing their ascent.
PREDICTION: Denver -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Grizzlies' offense has been fairly potent lately, pushing the pace and putting up 119.5 ppg over its past six contests. For the season, Memphis plays at the NBA's eighth-fastest pace, and that number's trending up.
While Denver plods along at the league's fourth-slowest pace, it still manages the NBA's fourth-most points, with several capable weapons orbiting around Jokic's symphony of offensive efficiency and, more recently, Murray's complete eruption.
Denver averages 115.9 ppg on the season, and this total of 226.5 is far more indicative of the Memphis that played with an absent/hobbled Morant. The Grizzlies of the past few weeks have played like they're on stimulants, and the Nuggets are never ones to shy away from a shootout.
We'd fire Over on any total below 230, making this one a relatively easy pick.
PREDICTION: Over 226.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Morant spent the early part of the season shelved with an ankle injury, and even upon returning, didn't quite look right for a minute.
An ankle injury is particularly troublesome for a player like Morant, who relies on explosive athleticism and herky-jerky movements to get by, and occasionally over, defenders.
After weeks of up-and-down performances, Morant has kicked it into high gear over his past three games, averaging 30.3 points, 8.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds. Yes, two of those outings were against the Wizards, but the Nuggets aren't defensive juggernauts either, and Morant's current form outpaces his 33.5 pts+rebs+asts total for this game so heavily that it would take a massive regression for him to fall short.
Getting this prop un-juiced is a steal in our minds.
PREDICTION: Ja Morant Over 33.5 pts+rebs+asts (-110)
Nuggets vs Grizzlies betting card
- Denver -2.5 (-110)
- Over 226.5 (-110)
- Ja Morant Over 33.5 pts+rebs+asts (-110)
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