Hands up if you had circled Friday's encounter between Utah and Phoenix as a battle between the top two teams in the Western Conference before the season began.
(And if you raised your hand, you're the worst liar ever.)
The Jazz and Suns look to punctuate stunning seasons as they tangle at PHX Arena with first place in the conference at stake. Utah owns a one-game lead over Phoenix and will be looking for revenge after dropping the first two meetings between the teams this season.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Suns on April 30.
Jazz vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis number bounced around a bit at FanDuel, from Phoenix -4 to -5, then to -3.5 before climbing back to -5, all by late morning today. As of 7:15 p.m. ET, the line is Suns -5, with ticket count and money running 2/1 on Phoenix. The total dropped from 222.5 to 218.5, then rebounded to 220 and is now 219.5, with 86 percent of tickets/88 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameJazz at Suns betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: PG Mike Conley (Out), SG Donovan Mitchell (Out), PF Royce O'Neale (Questionable).
Suns: PF Jae Crowder (Questionable), PF Dario Saric (Probable), SG Langston Galloway (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the past five head-to-head meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Suns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Suns are 4.5-point favorites in this one, and you can't help but wonder if the number should be a bit higher with the Jazz missing their starting backcourt. Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell will both sit this one out due to injury, and it's an enormous loss for Utah, with the duo combining to average 42.8 points and 11.2 assists on the season.
They had little trouble dealing with those absences last time out, erupting for a franchise-record 154 regulation points in a 49-point laugher against Sacramento. The Suns, however, are not the Kings – and they have been positively dominant on their home court this season, having gone 24-9 at PHX Arena with an impressive plus-9.4 averaging scoring margin in friendly territory.
Overcoming the absence of two All-Star-caliber players is going to be too much for the Jazz, who probably should have saved some of that offense from their win over the Kings for this one.
PREDICTION: Suns -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The books have set this total in the low-220s, which falls right in between the outcomes of their previous two meetings. Utah had played to the Under in four consecutive games following that ridiculous blowout victory over the Kings, while Phoenix is on a 12-5 O/U heater over its last 17 games to move to 33-29 O/U for the season.
That mark is even more slanted toward the Over at home, where the Suns are 19-14 O/U overall. Yet, while that might compel some bettors to hammer the Over, Phoenix is actually 9-10 O/U against the West and 10-4 vs. the East. And with the Jazz still short-handed on offense, they'll almost certainly look to limit the Suns' possessions and try to win this one at a slower pace.
We expect this to much more closely resemble the first meeting between the teams (a 106-95 Phoenix triumph on New Year's Eve) than the second one (a 117-113 Suns win on April 7).
PREDICTION: Under 221.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
We'll keep this brief: Rudy Gobert is really good at rebounding. His 13.4 rpg average ranks second in the NBA, and he has been particularly effective in two meetings with the Suns this season, averaging 16 boards per night.
The Jazz will need Gobert to be their best player Friday night, and that means crashing the boards at both ends of the court to limit Phoenix's second chances and give the Jazz a few extra possessions. We really like the Over on his rebound prop.
PREDICTION: Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds (-128)
Jazz vs Suns betting card
- Suns -4.5 (-110)
- Under 221.5 (-110)
- Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds (-128)
Picks made on 4/30/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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