The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers will wrap up a two-game set in Philly on Friday, after the 76ers crushed the Hawks 127-83 on Wednesday night.
With Atlanta clinging to the fifth seed and a first-round matchup with the Knicks, it's crucial it keeps pace with the teams chasing it in the Eastern Conference and avoids a meeting with the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers to begin the postseason.
Can Atlanta do it with a win in Philadelphia on Friday? Here are our best NBA betting free picks and predictions for Hawks vs. 76ers on April 30 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Friday night's news that Trae Young would return for the Hawks vs. the 76ers.)
Hawks vs 76ers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged Philadelphia a 9.5-point favorite overnight, moved down to -9 and up to -10 within about 20 minutes this morning, then settled in at -9.5 all day. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, the 76ers are drawing 70 percent of tickets and money on the point spread. The total went from 221.5 to 222, then fell to 220, with 65 percent of tickets on the Over and 55 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Hawks at 76ers betting preview
Injuries
Hawks: Clint Capela C (Questionable), Kevin Huerter SG (Out), Bogdan Bogdanovic SG (Out), Cam Reddish SF (Out), Tony Snell SG (Probable), DeAndre Hunter PF (Out).
76ers: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings vs. the 76ers in Philadelphia. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. 76ers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Atlanta's talisman, Trae Young, has been upgraded to questionable as he nears a return from an ankle sprain, but Friday may be too soon for the point guard. The Hawks started their stretch without Young admirably, grinding out tough wins against the Bucks and Heat, but that good form has skidded to a halt. Atlanta came out flat the night after beating Milwaukee, dropping a hideous game to the Pistons 100-86, then again failed to hit the 90-point mark in Philly on Wednesday.
Not only are the Hawks down Young, but their two other initiators in Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter, as well. Without that trio's ability to get Atlanta into its offense and knock down shots, the Hawks have gone quiet and are shooting just 36 percent from the field over their last two. With the three guards questionable for Friday, it's incredibly difficult to back Atlanta even with a generous spread.
Making our decision easier is the 76ers' form at home, which has been nearly flawless for several years, as they currently sit 24-7 in Philadelphia this season. Atlanta center Clint Capela should beat out Joel Embiid for the second All-Defense spot this season, but even with his outstanding year, Philly has the three best players in this matchup and home floor advantage.
PREDICTION: 76ers -9 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Hawks are 1-3 O/U since Young sprained his ankle, including three straight Unders. As mentioned, there's little hope for a rapid turnaround for their offense, with neither Capela nor John Collins capable of creating their own shot on a consistent basis.
The 76ers, meanwhile, have been one of the most reliable Under bets all season at 28-34 O/U on the year and 3-7 O/U in their last 10. With a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Ben Simmons, capable of defending one through five, and an elite rim protector in Embiid — plus an elite on- and off-ball defender in Matisse Thybulle — it's not a surprise to see Philadelphia's second-ranked defense help to reward Under bettors.
The 76ers have topped 120 points in back-to-back home games, but both went Under because they suffocated their opponent on the other end. Philadelphia may pour in points again, but it'll do enough to limit the Hawks' already limited offense on the other end to keep this one Under.
PREDICTION: Under 221.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Atlanta center Clint Capela is enjoying the best season of his career, with a larger share of the offense than he had while screening for James Harden in Houston while playing absolutely phenomenal defense. However, as he is wont to do, Embiid made Capela look like a G-Leaguer on both ends on Wednesday.
With Capela nursing a sore heel and Embiid all-too-happy to dominate his counterpart, expect Embiid to come out on a mission on Friday.
PREDICTION: Joel Embiid Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)
Hawks vs 76ers betting card
- 76ers -9 (-110)
- Under 221.5 (-110)
- Joel Embiid Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)
Picks made on 4/30/2021 at 8:10 a.m. ET
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