The Miami Heat are riding a four-game winning streak but will face a tough test to extend it to five games, with the NBA's best team in the Utah Jazz coming to town for a Friday night contest.
Miami ended a seven-game road trip with three consecutive wins before returning home and beating the Raptors on Wednesday night. Early in that road trip, however, they fell to the Jazz 112-94 in Utah. Can Miami get revenge back on their home floor?
Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Heat on Friday, February 26, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: Udoka Azubuike C (Out).
Heat: Tyler Herro SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between Utah and Miami. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Heat.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe blistering-hot Jazz opened as 5.5-point favorites Thursday night at FanDuel, peaked at -7.5 this morning and fell to -6 late this afternoon. Shortly before tipoff, Utah is -5.5 and seeing 75 percent of point-spread bets/70 percent of spread money. The total opened at 217, fell to 216, then made its way up to 220 over the course of the day. With game time approaching, the total is at 219.5, with the Over getting 73 percent of bets and 72 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Utah Jazz, at a sparkling 26-6, are the NBA's best team this season. They have lost just once in their last 12 games, a 116-112 loss to the Clippers (their second game in L.A. against the Clippers in three nights). They've also been historically automatic against the spread, with 11 and eight-game streaks ATS contributing to a 24-8 ATS record on the year.
While the Heat get back into form after Jimmy Butler missed a large portion of the early season, they continue to be up-and-down against the spread, with a current four-game ATS streak preceded by a three-game losing streak against the spread. At 13-18-1 ATS on the season, Miami hasn't shown a level of consistency in this department that would allow us to trust them against the NBA's ATS kings.
PREDICTION: Jazz -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Jazz offense has been absolutely lethal in 2021. Utah whips the ball around the court, consistently taking advantage of help defenders by finding the open man and punishing teams. With an offensive rating of 118.51, Utah is behind just the Clippers and Nets on the year.
However, while they are extremely efficient, Utah hardly plays at a quick pace. The Jazz's 101.6 possessions per game are the fourth-fewest across the league -- they simply make the most of the possessions they do get.
The same can't be said for a Heat team who are similarly slow (their 102.1 possessions per game is good for 23rd in the league) but not nearly as efficient, ranking 24th in offensive rating and 23rd in efficiency.
Between the pace of both teams and a fairly even O/U split on the season (the Jazz are 14-17-1, the Heat 15-17), we feel good going Under here -- just a couple of weeks after they combined to score 206.
PREDICTION: Under 217.5 (-110)
First half prop pick
These two teams' low total in their last meeting, and historically low output in recent years, suggests we should double down on a low-scoring matchup in this one. And that's exactly what we're going to do.
The Jazz are 13-18 O/U in the first half of games this season, going Over as the road team just five times. Miami, too, is slow out of the gates, with a 15-15-1 O/U record on the year, while topping the first-half total just seven times at home. Over their last 10 games, these two have combined for an 8-12 O/U record. We'll stick with the Under here.
PREDICTION: First Half Under 106.5 (-110)
Jazz vs Heat betting card
- Jazz -6.5 (-110)
- Under 217.5 (-110)
- First Half Under 106.5 (-110)
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