The top teams in each conference collide Wednesday when the NBA-best Utah Jazz take on the East-leading Philadelphia 76ers.
The potential NBA Finals preview highlights a busy night in the Association that has 10 games on the betting board.
Utah is coming off a surprising loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, while the 76ers enter this marquee showdown following a 16-point blowout win. Who has the edge in Philadelphia tonight? Find out with our best free picks and predictions for Jazz vs. 76ers, with tipoff set for 7 p.m. ET at the Wells Fargo Center.
Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: None.
76ers: Joel Embiid C (Probable), Tobias Harris F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between the 76ers and Jazz. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. 76ers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWilliam Hill US opened Utah a 3.5-point road favorite, dipped down to -2.5, but with tipoff just minutes out, the Jazz are back to -3.5. It's two-way point-spread action, with 51 percent of tickets on the Jazz and 53 percent of money on the 76ers. The total is out to 231 from a 228 opener, with 81 percent of bets/87 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Let's get this out of the way early: The statuses of MVP contender Joel Embiid and 20-point scorer Tobias Harris will, obviously, greatly dictate how this game plays out. Embiid is probable and Harris is questionable after missing the last two games with a knee injury. The good news is that word this morning from 76ers head coach Doc Rivers is that both are expected to play.
Utah is coming off a dud that they made close at the end, but it still resulted in a loss in a game that it entered as 6.5-point favorites. The Jazz haven't lost back-to-back contests since early January and have been dominant ATS this season, but they've slowed down a bit as we get set to reach the All-Star break.
The top team in the NBA at 27-8 is 3-3 over its last six after winning nine in a row. The Jazz's offense hasn't been a problem, but they're 20th in defensive rating over that stretch, so perhaps some fatigue has set in, as most of those games didn't come against offensive powerhouses. With that said, they're having an incredible season and are the only team in the NBA that ranks in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which has led to a lot of blowouts and been the key reason why they're so great at covering.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 5-5 over its last 10 and at risk of being overtaken by the Brooklyn Nets for the top seed in the East. The 76ers can be frustrating from one game to the next but they're still 11 games over .500 and are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They're 18-16-1 ATS this season, but 12-6 at home where they are a sizzling 15-3 straight up.
The line moving up to Utah -3.5 is just enough for us to back a dominant 76ers team at home.
PREDICTION: 76ers +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams met recently in mid-February, with Utah covering the -8.5 spread and putting up 134 points to help this game blow way past the Over that was set at 225.5.
Utah can score as well as any team, using its well-balanced offense to average the third-most points per game at 116.4. But that top-end defense that we mentioned earlier has allowed the Jazz to keep opponents in check and not be as strong at going Over as they are at covering. The Jazz, 4-1-1 O/U over their last six, are 17-17-1 on the season.
Playing their last game before the break after giving up 129 to the Pelicans, we'd expect the Jazz to get back to displaying their first-rate defense again.
The Sixers have gone Over in each of their last two (they needed overtime against the Cavs to get one of them), but went Under in four straight before that and are second in the NBA in defensive rating over their last seven games. Also playing in their last game before the break, the 76ers should bring maximum effort on the defensive end tonight.
In a game that features an array of strong defenders from Ben Simmons to Mike Conley, plus the Embiid and Rudy Gobert matchup, we're not anticipating a slugfest tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 230 (-110)
Player prop pick
Embiid missed the first meeting between these two teams and Philadelphia obviously missed his presence in the 11-point loss, but it still outrebounded the Jazz. In addition to being among the best defensive teams in the NBA, they are both Top 5 in rebounding rate. A large part of that can be credited to their All-Star centers, with Gobert ranking third in the NBA in rebounds per game and Embiid eighth.
Embiid will be fighting for boards with Gobert all night, but he's gone Over his O/U rebounding prop of 11.5 in five of his last six games and is coming off back-to-back 13-rebound performances and averaged exactly 11.5 per game for the month of February.
We like Embiid to step up for the Sixers tonight and have a big game on the glass.
PREDICTION: Embiid Over 11.5 Reb (-134)
Jazz vs 76ers betting card
- 76ers +3.5 (-110)
- Under 230 (-110)
- Embiid Over 11.5 Reb (-134)
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