We get treated to a matchup of two of the most fearsome shooters in the NBA as Dame Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.
Curry and the Dubs just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end last time out, but are still 2.5-point NBA betting favorites on the road against a Blazers team that just halted a four-game skid. But which sharpshooter has the betting edge?
Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers on Wednesday, March 3 with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Marquese Chriss SF (Out), Klay Thompson SG (Out).
Trail Blazers: Harry Giles III PF (Questionable), Jusuf Nurkic C (Out), CJ McCollum SG (Out), Zach Collins PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonGolden State hit the PointsBet USA odds board as 1.5-point favorites very early today, sretched to -3.5 by midmorning, then dialed down to -1 early this afternoon. As of 7:15 p.m. ET, the Warriors are -2. "Good two-way action on the spread, with 56 percent of bets on the Warriors and 66 percent of handle on the Blazers," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total dipped from 235 to 233. "Two-way action on the total, as well, 55 percent of bets on the Over and 61 percent of handle on the Under," Yearout said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
This will be the third meeting of the year between the Warriors and Trail Blazers, with the Western Conference foes splitting the first two games played in San Francisco. Each team won their matchup rather easily, with the Blazers winning a 123-98 decision in the first matchup while the Warriors responded with a 137-122 shootout victory in the next. Since then, plenty has changed for both teams.
The 19-14 Trail Blazers have had to deal with a laundry list of injuries, which includes CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic missing significant time this season, but Portland has been able to tread water thanks to Dame Lillard and support from guys like Gary Trent Jr. and the ageless Carmelo Anthony. Portland is coming off a “get-right” win over the Charlotte Hornets after losing four in a row.
Meanwhile, the Warriors sit at 19-16 and have had to deal with their own injury issues. But the Dubs are getting healthy and have been led, of course, by Steph Curry. The former two-time MVP is leading the Warriors in scoring, putting up 29.5 points per game, while adding 6.4 assists and 5.4 rebounds.
The problem for the Warriors is that they have struggled to get consistent scoring outside of Curry. Yes, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have shown improvement, but aren’t reliable enough on a night-in, night-out basis, even against a shaky defensive team like the Blazers.
The Warriors have improved tremendously on the defensive end, however, but they are still a weak rebounding team and don’t defend the 3-point line overly well. That could spell trouble against the triple-happy Blazers.
With the Warriors not being quite as strong on the road (7-10 SU/ATS), and their scoring output dropping to 111.3 in those games, we like the Blazers to not only cover, but win outright as short home dogs.
PREDICTION: Trail Blazers ML (+110)
Over/Under pick
The Warriors and Blazers also split the totals in their two previous meetings this season with the first game going Over and the second Under. The third meeting has a similar total of 234, with the early money coming in on the Under—and we tend to agree.
As noted, the Warriors struggle to find consistent scoring outside of Curry, and it is even more apparent on the road, where they rank 24th in offensive rating this season.
On the other side, the Blazers are known as a high-volume shooting team. They take a lot of shots, but they miss a lot at the same time as well. And before their win over the Hornets, they averaged just 102.5 points per game during their four-game slide, and now go against a Warriors team that ranks fourth in defensive rating since Feb. 1.
With those things considered, this one should sneak below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 234 (-110)
Player prop pick
All eyes will be on the point guard matchup of Steph Curry vs. Dame Lillard in this one. Unfortunately for Steph, his matchup against the sub-par Blazers’ defense has elevated most of his player props. That’s not the case for Dame.
As mentioned, the Warriors struggled a bit defending the perimeter, ranking 19th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and not many in the NBA are jacking up more threes than Dame. He is averaging career-high 11.1 3-point attempts this season, and that number has hopped up to 13 over his last eight games.
While Lillard is shooting a passable 38.5 percent from deep over that eight-game stretch, volume alone makes his made threes prop enticing. The number is set at 4.5 for this matchup, a number he has gone Over six times in that span. We’re betting he makes it 7 of 9.
PREDICTION: Damian Lillard Over 4.5 Made Threes (-120)
Warriors vs Trail Blazers betting card
- Trail Blazers ML (+110)
- Under 234 (-110)
- Damian Lillard Over 4.5 Made Threes (-120)
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