After an overtime loss to the Golden State Warriors, the Miami Heat look to get back on track for NBA betting against the Sacramento Kings. This one tips at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 18 at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
Will Miami struggle after playing such a hard-fought game last night? Find out in our Heat vs. Kings picks and predictions.
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings betting preview
Injuries
Heat: G Goran Dragic (questionable), G Avery Bradley (out), C Meyers Leonard (out).
Kings: C Richaun Holmes (out), F Harrison Barnes (out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Kings.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged Miami a 2.5-point road favorite at the outset Wednesday afternoon, and by mid-afternoon today, the line reached pick 'em, where it remains at 7:30 p.m. ET. "Miami is currently taking 58 percent of bets and 68 percent of handle," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total opened 224 and shot to 228 by this afternoon, then receded to 226. "Good two-way action on this total, with 66 percent of bets on the Over and 67 perecnt of money wagered on the Under."
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Heat are coming off an overtime loss to the Warriors, and Miami blew a 14-point lead late in that game. Sometimes factoring in fatigue can be the wrong approach when looking at a game, but the Heat are going to be extremely gassed both mentally and physically. This is a West Coast swing for Miami, which means the team is playing later than normal and it’s just hard to imagine this group not being drained on the second night of a back-to-back. On top of that, Miami is also somewhat shorthanded right now, and this team has shown that it can have key players sitting on any given night.
The Kings are also a much better team than they used to be. Sacramento has lost four games in a row coming into this one, but Luke Walton’s group has had some extra time to get fresh. The Kings last played on Monday, which means they’ll have fresh legs against a potentially tired Heat team. Look for De’Aaron Fox to really push the pace in this one, and don’t be surprised if he has a big game here. The Heat do not have many guys that can handle his speed, which will also create open looks for guys like Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton.
PREDICTION: Kings +2.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This total is surprisingly low for two teams that occasionally fail to show up on the defensive end. That normally means that the Under is the sharp play, but it’s just hard to suggest backing it here. The Kings are 11th in the league in offensive rating, and each of their last three contests have gone Over the total. Meanwhile, Miami has gotten back to its defensive roots with Jimmy Butler back from injury, but the team has still allowed 119.0 points per game in its last three. So, while it’s definitely not crazy to think that the Heat might lock down here, it’s not entirely likely.
PREDICTION: Over 223.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
This season, Hield is averaging 16.1 points per game for a Kings team that gets up and down the floor in a hurry. Tonight, Hield faces the Heat, who are allowing more made threes per game than all but one team in the league.
Miami undoubtedly has some good defenders, but it’s no secret that the Heat struggle to get out on shooters. If anybody can benefit from that, it’s Hield. The guard’s percentages aren’t all that great this season, but he puts up a lot of shots each night and should get quality looks here.
PREDICTION: Buddy Hield Over 18.5 Points (+100)
Heat vs Kings betting card
- Kings +2.0 (-110)
- Over 223.5 (-110)
- Buddy Hield Over 18.5 Points (+100)
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