The Toronto Raptors outlasted the Atlanta Hawks 135-128 as 2.5-point home favorites when they faced off this past Wednesday. Tonight, these Eastern Conference foes get to do it all over again just two days later.
The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the Raptors while extending the Hawks' skid to five straight. On top of that, Atlanta hasn’t covered a spread in any of its last eight games. But the NBA odds have this as another tight and entertaining matchup, as Toronto is listed as a 2-point favorite with a total north of 240.
Can the Raps start a winning streak, or will the Hawks exact some revenge? I break down the basketball odds and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Raptors on Friday, December 15.
Hawks vs Raptors odds
Hawks vs Raptors predictions
So, we were dishing out dimes and made out pretty well in our last Raptors preview. Pascal Siakam hit the Over on his 5.5 assists at nice plus money, while Jakob Poeltl and Dejounte Murray completed our same-game parlay by hitting the Over on their assists props as well.
Unfortunately, sportsbooks wised up this time around and juiced up those assists props. So, this won’t be as easy as just going back to the well. However, I’ve gotten creative and found something with some value.
As I noted on Wednesday, the Toronto Raptors make up for the fact they don’t have elite shooters by committing to make the extra pass. Even though Toronto isn’t getting a ton of buckets per game, its assist rate is one of the highest in the NBA. The Raptors rank second in assist rate and fourth in assists per game. They assisted on 39 of 50 field goals in that last meeting with the Atlanta Hawks.
So, clearly, the Hawks' defense continued to struggle in that game, now ranking 27th in defensive rating, 29th in opponent eFG%, and 29th in opponent assists per game. But there's another place they are getting killed. And that’s in the paint.
The Hawks rank 27th in opponent points in the paint and 22nd in points allowed per game to opposing centers. That means there should be plenty of opportunities for easy buckets and dishing out dimes for Jak.
The Raptors center is averaging 11 points and 2.3 assists per game this season. But Poeltl was a big part of the game plan against the Hawks. His footwork appeared too quick for the likes of Clint Capela while he went 5-8 from the floor while making eight trips to the free throw line, ending the night with 15 points.
The ball also moved through Poeltl and matched a season-high with six assists. The Raps big has always had great court vision and touch and is averaging 3.1 assists per 36 minutes this season.
Poeltl is just a bad matchup for an undersized Hawks team. I’m taking him to go Over his points + assists prop, which is sitting at 14.5.
My best bet: Jakob Poeltl Over 14.5 points + assists (-115 at Pointsbet)
Hawks vs Raptors same-game parlay
Jakob Poeltl Over 14.5 points + assists
Dejounte Murray Over 4.5 assists
Dennis Schroder 2+ made threes
While have been priced out of plus-money assist props for our best bet this time around, I am still looking at Murray to do his thing.
The Hawks guard is averaging 5.3 assists per game this season, the Raptors rank 20th in opponent assists per game, and his assists prop is once again set at 4.5, a number he has eclipsed in 15 of his previous 23 games.
Let’s close today’s SGP out with a shooting prop. The Raptors found their shooting rhythm from beyond the arc last game going 18-34 against a Hawks team that ranks 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
A lot of guys were hot in that game, but I like Dennis Schroder’s chances of keeping that hot hand. That’s in large part because he gets Trae Young’s so-called defending most of the game. Add Schroder to make 2+ threes to this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Hawks vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors closed Wednesday’s matchup as 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 241. So, after Toronto’s 135-128 win, it’s no surprise to see the NBA odds for Friday’s affair hit the board at Raps -2 and 244.5.
But just because the Raptors won last time out doesn’t mean it’s a given to happen again. For starters, beating a team twice in a row is generally difficult. But more importantly, it’s hard to figure out which Raptors team you will see on a game-to-gam basis.
Will they be the ones who exploded in the second half vs. the Hawks? Or are they that team that recently lost back-to-back games to the Hornets and a shorthanded Heat team? Toronto’s combination of inconsistent shooting (23rd in effective field goal percentage) and a defense that has taken a step back means there is a large variance in their outcomes. I'm staying away from the spread here.
But let’s get back to that defense. This Toronto team is supposed to be known for its play at that end of the floor, but they just gave up 128 points and now rank 18th in defensive rating.
And despite the Hawks’ flaws on defense, it doesn’t hurt their confidence in shooting the ball. They rank fifth in offensive rating and attempt the second-most shots per game.
The early action on the total has driven the number from the opening 244.5 to 241 as of early Friday afternoon. The Raptors have proven they can get some buckets against poor defenses, including last time out. I would lean Over here.
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Hawks vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Hawks have hit the Over in 43 of their last 69 games for +15.50 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Raptors.
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Hawks vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, December 15, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports SE-ATL |
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