Despite Jason Kidd’s best efforts to stir up the chatter about the Boston Celtics’ pecking order, Jaylen Brown is doing his talking on the court with back-to-back assured performances in these Finals.
Brown was a huge factor in Games 1 and 2, filling up the box score while pestering Luka Doncic, and my NBA picks expect more of the same tonight as the series shifts to Dallas with the Celtics as slight underdogs in the latest NBA odds.
With Doncic & Co. in desperation mode, Brown is going to be at the center of the action again in Game 3, making this an ideal moment to dig into his NBA player prop markets.
Jaylen Brown prop picks for June 12
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Jaylen Brown best bet
Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 points (+100)
As we’ve seen through the first two games, when Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum drive the ball against this Dallas Mavericks defense, good things happen. And it’s hard to see the Boston Celtics going away from that formula here.
I’m still beating the drum for the Over on the Brown points prop. I liked the 22.5 O/U in Game 2 — he fell just short — and there’s every reason to stick with him tonight, especially if Kristaps Porzingis’ leg injury keeps him out.
Brown has gone past the 20-point mark in both games in the Finals despite posting a combined 3-for-11 mark from downtown and missing five free throws in Game 1.
He also had 24 points or more in all four contests in Boston’s Eastern Conference Finals sweep against the Indiana Pacers. That’s the kind of consistency you want for a points prop.
His numbers on the road are another reason to feel good about the Over. Brown has averaged 27 ppg in his past four outings away from TD Garden — and he’s been decisive and relentless when teams overcommit against Tatum.
Brown is comfortable attacking the rim against any of the Dallas defenders, with the possible exception of Derrick Jones Jr., and those forays into the paint generally lead to easy buckets or trips to the foul line.
A banged-up Doncic should be a regular target if the visitors go mismatch hunting, and it’s fair to think that Brown will have a few extra field goal attempts if Boston is redistributing Porzingis’ touches.
With the chance to take a stranglehold on these Finals, I expect Brown to answer the call in a big way tonight — and that all starts with his scoring.
Prop: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
Jaylen Brown same-game parlay
Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 points
Jaylen Brown Under 9.5 rebounds + assists
Jaylen Brown Over 0.5 blocks
Despite six turnovers, Brown made a lot of smart plays on Sunday night on the way to seven assists. However, I’m hesitant to count on a repeat of that dimes total. After all, he’d served up three or fewer assists in each of his prior four games and the Celtics have the luxury of multiple quality ball-handlers.
Likewise, his rebounding comes and goes, with Tatum, Al Horford, and the Boston backcourt all capable of cleaning the glass. So I’m fading Brown’s combined rebounds + assists prop tonight, and buying into the idea that it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Celtics here.
We also haven’t really seen Brown in foul trouble so far in this series, but that could come into play at American Airlines Center if the Mavs get a better whistle at home. While I’d still feel comfortable with his points prop in that scenario, the rebounding numbers could take a hit if he’s trying to avoid picking up a cheap foul.
I’m also picking Brown to record at least one block. Even though he’ll have the Doncic assignment for most of the night, he’s one of several Boston players who can pick up the rim protection slack if Porzingis is sidelined here.
Brown swatted three shots in Game 1 and he’s had at least one block in five of his last seven contests.
Whether he’s in chasedown mode on a fast break or rotating to deny one of the Mavs’ centers, Brown has the athleticism to cash this Over.
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