Down 3-1, the Rockets delivered a blowout win over the Warriors on Wednesday to force another win-or-go-home game on Friday night.
Can the Rockets steal one at Chase Center to send the series back home for Game 7, or will the Dubs close things out to advance to the Western Conference semifinals?
I’m focusing on scoring props set a bit too low for Buddy Hield, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks for my Rockets vs. Warriors props and NBA picks for Friday, May 2.
Best Rockets vs Warriors props
Rockets vs Warriors player props for May 2
Buddy Hield Over 9.5 points (-105 at bet365)
Buddy Hield earned his first start in over two months when he joined the first unit for Game 4. He logged a total of 31 minutes across Games 1-2 but logged 29 minutes in Game 3 and 30 in Game 4. Hield started Game 5 but logged only 18 minutes as the Golden State Warriors got blown out on the road.
Hield earned a starting job due to Moses Moody’s struggles. Moody dropped 25 in Game 5, but there’s no guarantee he earns his starting job back after his strong performance in a one-sided loss.
Hield scored 17 and 15 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. In 24 starts this season, he averaged 11.9 points and finished with at least 10 in 14 of them. Hield reached that scoring milestone in 45 of 88 games overall.
He excelled when given meaningful minutes, dropping 10 or more points in 11 of 12 games played with at least 30 minutes. The sharpshooter reached that mark in 25 of 30 games played with at least 25 minutes.
I’m counting on him seeing at least 25 minutes again tonight, and I love the longer -105 odds on this low scoring line.
Fred VanVleet Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Fred VanVleet couldn’t have opened the playoffs much worse, as he totaled just 17 points on 6-of-27 shooting through Games 1 and 2. That included a 3-of-20 mark from downtown. FVV put those two games in the rearview quickly, and he’s been superb as a scorer across his last three.
In Games 3 through 5, VanVleet has averaged 22.7 points and five triples on 52.5% shooting from the field and 55.6% shooting from beyond the arc.
He’s scored at least 17 points in three straight, and I expect another strong performance tonight as the Houston Rockets look to stave off elimination for one more game. VanVleet’s scoring took a step back during the regular season, but he’s got a history of solid offensive performances in the playoffs.
VanVleet has scored at least 16 points in 14 of his last 20 playoff games while averaging 17.8 points. He’ll need to be at his best tonight if the Rockets hope to force a Game 7 back home.
Dillon Brooks Over 11.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Dillon Brooks isn’t just on the court to throw hands with Draymond Green. He’s actually been quite effective as a scorer against the Warriors this season, and his scoring line is set advantageously low.
Brooks scored at least 12 points in 49 of 80 games this season, including five of 10 against Golden State. In those 10 games against the Dubs, Brooks averaged 13.7 points, but he’s been even better this postseason.
Brooks has scored at least 11 points in all five games against the Warriors in the first-round series, and he’s hit the Over on this line three times in the postseason. To add more appeal to this prop, Brooks’ home/road splits against Golden State favor his performance at Chase Center.
He averaged 15.8 points on 58.5% shooting (50% from deep) at Chase Center this season compared to 12.3 points on 43.9% shooting (34.6% from deep) in home games against the Warriors. I’ll happily take the Over on this mispriced scoring line.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
