With the Houston Rockets jumping out to a 16-point lead after one quarter in Game 5, it quickly became apparent to the Golden State Warriors that it wasn’t their night.
Steve Kerr promptly pulled the plug on that effort and conserved his starters for a second shot at ending this series Friday night.
Golden State needs to show some killer instinct, which is something Jimmy Butler has a surplus of. With Stephen Curry playing through an injured thumb, “Playoff Jimmy” may have to carry to Dubs to Round 2.
Here are my best Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for May 2.
Who will win Rockets vs Warriors Game 6?
Kerr’s decision to bail on Game 5 gives his starters extra rest before their return home. It also gives those standouts plenty to prove.
Golden State is a playoff-savvy team and knows it can’t afford a Game 7 back in Houston. I like the Dubs to slam the door and win Game 6.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Jimmy Butler’s output has been tough to track in this series, but when healthy and playing normal minutes, Butler could be the best player of the entire postseason.
That resume includes a 38-point showing against Memphis in the Play-In Tournament, a 25-point performance in Game 1, and a 27-point eruption in Game 4. The latter came after suffering a nasty fall early in Game 2 and sitting out Game 3 due to a “pelvic contusion” — AKA a bruised hip.
Butler was among the many Golden State Warriors who struggled to start Game 5. He was just 2-for-10 from the floor in 25 minutes of action, scoring only eight points (half of which came from the foul line).
Much like his teammates, Butler is no stranger to the drastic swings of playoff basketball and isn’t pushing the panic button. He’s emphasizing a strong start to Game 6, pulling energy from what will be a crazy crowd inside the Chase Center on Friday night.
“We’re fine. Our confidence isn’t going to waver,” Butler told the media after Game 5. “We’re going to start out better and play a better overall game because we know how good of a team we are as a unit, we know how good our players are as individuals. So us, the starters, have to kick us off better, which we know we will do. We'll be fine.”
Early Game 6 projections aren’t bullish on Butler’s scoring potential — sitting around 19 points — but those models aren’t taking into account the other gear Butler finds in the playoffs, as well as the health of guard Stephen Curry.
Curry is nursing a gnarly thumb injury on his shooting hand, which has been targeted by the Houston Rockets' defense. The future Hall-of-Famer has been far less active in this series and has surpassed 20 field goal attempts only once.
He was 4-for-12 in Game 5 before getting yanked after 23 minutes. With Curry potentially limited, Butler will again be called upon to set the tone from the opening tip.
Outside of last night’s abbreviated appearance and the eight minutes in Game 2 (before his fall), Butler has eclipsed his scoring prop in six straight games, averaging 28.7 points in those contests.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler 20+ points
Jimmy Butler 5+ first-quarter points
Warriors moneyline
Player projections sit around 20 points from Butler, but I strongly believe he’s got a lot more scoring in him.
Butler is preaching about the importance of a strong start to Game 6. He’ll lead by example with five or more in the first 12 minutes.
The Warriors won’t let this go to Game 7, closing out Houston in front of a well-oiled home crowd.
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Rockets vs Warriors odds
Rockets vs Warriors live odds
Rockets vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Houston +5 (-110) | Golden State -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston +175 | Golden State -210
- Over/Under: Over 203.5 (-110) | Under 203.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
• The Warriors opened as 5-point home favorites for Game 6, and that spread has been steady at that key number. Some shops are below that mark at Golden State -4.5. The home team is 3-2 ATS in this series so far.
• The Over/Under hit the board at 203.5 points. After the first three games played Under, the previous two contests have finished Over the closing totals of 203 and 203.5 points.
• According to Covers Consensus, 57% of early picks are laying the 5-point spread with the Warriors, while 76% of total picks are taking the Over.
Rockets vs Warriors trend
The Warriors are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS as home favorites of -5 or shorter this season. Those 15 games have also produced a 10-5 O/U count (67% Overs). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Friday, 5-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
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