The seesaw battle in the Western Conference Finals shifts back to the Paycom Center tonight for a pivotal Game 5, as the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder enter tied at 2-2.
With tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, our Covers experts have you set with their best NBA picks for Tuesday, May 26.
Spurs vs. Thunder Expert Picks Tonight
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler:  Spurs +4.5 |
-110 |
 Jason Logan: De'Aaron Fox o14.5 points |
-112 |
 Joe Osborne:  Thunder TT o110.5 |
-115 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Spurs +4.5
Price: -110 at bet365
This is a classic NBA Playoff situation where regular-season power ratings haven’t fully caught up to what’s happening in the series. Matchups matter more in the postseason, and right now, the San Antonio Spurs look like the better team, especially with Jalen Williams dealing with a hamstring injury.
I make San Antonio closer to a 3-point underdog, and that number already assumes Williams plays on a minutes restriction. If he’s ruled out entirely, the value on the Spurs only increases. Defensively, San Antonio has the perfect combination to disrupt the Oklahoma City Thunder's offense.
Victor Wembanyama protects the rim at an elite level, while Stephon Castle can pressure Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the point of attack and force him into tougher shots. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is relying a bit too heavily on role players offensively for my liking.
Jason Logan's expert pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 points
Price: -112 at bet365
De’Aaron Fox is more than 10 days removed from an ankle injury that forced him to miss the first two games of the WCF. He’s played 31 minutes in each of the past two outings, scoring 12 and 15 points on a collective 12-for-27 shooting in those games, but seeing limited action in the fourth quarter of those blowouts (just nine total 4Q minutes).
A tighter finish will have a healthier Fox logging his normal workload, seeing closer to 40 minutes tonight. The Thunder have injury issues in their backcourt, leaving bigger guards Lu Dort and Alex Caruso to try to keep up with Fox.
Game 5 projections all sit north of his 14.5 O/U scoring prop, ranging from 15.1 to a ceiling of 18.7, with most projections at 17+ points tonight.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Thunder team total Over 110.5
Price: -115 at bet365
I’m expecting a strong offensive bounce-back from OKC after that ugly 82-point showing in Game 4. This is still a team that entered that game leading all playoff teams in both scoring and offensive rating, and championship-level offenses usually respond well at home.
Game 4 was also misleading in some ways — despite being the lowest-scoring game of the series, it was played at the fastest pace yet, and the tempo has increased in every matchup in this series so far.
The Thunder are averaging 118.3 points per game at home this postseason and have cleared 110.5 points in 10 of 12 playoff games.
More Spurs vs. Thunder Game 4 picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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