If you're looking for a quick bet to cash in a basketball game, there's nothing like the first basket prop market.
I look at today's playoff matchup and find the best value in this early-game wager. Here are my NBA picks for the first basket in Game 3 between the Celtics and Pacers on May 25.
Celtics vs Pacers first basket picks
Click on each name to jump to the full analysis
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Boston Celtics
First basket pick: Jaylen Brown
(+500 at bet365)
Jayson Tatum led the Boston Celtics with 26.9 points per game during the regular season, but Jaylen Brown has been just as aggressive as a scorer in the playoffs, dropping at least 26 points in four of his last five games. Brown scored the first basket in Game 1 of this series and scored Boston's first five in Game 2.
Brown has actually been far more likely to take and hit the first shot of the game than Tatum over the entire season, taking the first FG attempt in 21% of his 81 regular season and playoff games — scoring the first basket 19 times (23.5%).
You can get him to score the first basket at +500 which converts to an implied probability of 16.67%. That's a big enough gap that you can get some value on this prop, especially with the Celtics winning the opening tipoff a whopping 68.1% of the time.
Indiana Pacers
First basket pick: Myles Turner
(+700 at bet365)
Pascal Siakam has the lowest odds of a Pacers player to score the first basket, but Myles Turner looks like the sharper bet to make and can be grabbed at +700. Siakam has taken the first shot in 8.9% of his games with the Pacers, scoring first in seven of 56 contests (12.5%). Turner takes the first shot 13% of the time and has made the first field goal in 14 of 92 games (15.2%).
After dropping 23 points in the series opener, Turner was held to just eight points on 3-for-7 shooting in Game 2. Expect him to come out more aggressive in this contest and look to attack the Celtics who are missing their best interior defender in Kristaps Porzingis.
Celtics at Pacers first basket odds
- Jaylen Brown (+500)
- Pascal Siakam (+500)
- Jayson Tatum (+550)
- Myles Turner (+600)
- Jrue Holiday (+800)
- Andrew Nembhard (+950)
- TJ McConnell (+950)
- Al Horford (+1,000)
- Derrick White (+1,200)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
