Victor Wembanyama returned just in time from his calf worry, proving the difference despite limited action in the San Antonio Spurs’ NBA Cup semifinal win against the Thunder. After missing nearly a month of action, Wembanyama posted a +21 in fewer than 21 minutes.
Wembanyama’s impact has always transcended a box score, but there are still plenty of juicy Victor Wembanyama odds to target in tonight’s Spurs vs. Knicks NBA Cup Final.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Under 9.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
At different points on Tuesday, this prop has been available at Under 10.5 rebounds at -135 at bet365. Either number is worth betting.
This game will not be a fast one, and it will be at its slowest when Victor Wembanyama is on the court. Some of that ties to how much he frustrates opposing offenses, forcing them to probe a few extra times on many possessions. Some of that ties to the San Antonio Spurs' offensive diligence.
With Wembanyama to start the season, the Spurs ranked No. 9 in pace, while in the 13 games since his injury, they fell to No. 24 in the NBA.
The New York Knicks are already the second-slowest team in the NBA over the last 10 games, so the Knicks will be happy to play a grind of a game. Tom Thibodeau may be gone, but this is still his roster design, after all.
Wembanyama’s minutes should be limited again, and those will be the slowest minutes of this Cup Final, meaning there will simply be fewer rebounding opportunities for the French big man.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
Victor Wembanyama Under 9.5 rebounds
Victor Wembanyama Over 21.5 points
Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 threes
Wembanyama scored 21 points in fewer than 21 minutes against a historically great defense on Saturday. He shot 6-of-11 from the field and 9-of-12 from the line. Whether that was “ethical” basketball or not, Wembanyama was effective.
In a game that should be just as tight as that 111-109 upset, expect Wembanyama to dictate much of San Antonio’s offense in the second half. He played 8:32 in the fourth quarter on Saturday, scoring 15 points on 4-of-7 shooting and 7-of-10 from the line.
He took over when it mattered most.
But when it mattered most, Wembanyama did not station himself outside the arc, his only 3-point attempt in his return coming in his first stint, part of a five-point second quarter.
Wembanyama has yet to become a true shooter — and if that day ever comes, the league may never recover. That relative weakness is going to show itself more than ever in his return from a month-long absence.
Even when he had more of a shooting rhythm, Wembanyama cleared this prop in only five of the first 12 games of the year.
With tonight’s stakes, this is not the moment for Wembanyama to shoot his way back into form. Instead, expect him to live near the rim.
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