Cavaliers vs Pacers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Playoffs Game 3

Logan's prediction: All signs point to Jarrett Allen putting Cleveland on his back tonight as the Cavs try to avoid an 0-3 hole in their second round series.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 9, 2025 • 16:34 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Jarrett Allen Cleveland Cavaliers NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images. Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (31) prepares to shoot a free throw.

The “Factory of Sadness” is a moniker usually reserved for Cleveland’s football team. But it seems that factory is cranking out a basketball brand of sorrow after the Cleveland Cavaliers’ sad start to Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs.

The No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference limps into Gainbridge Fieldhouse down 0-2 to the Indiana Pacers and looking at a long list of ailments to key players. 

All-star guard Darius Garland (toe) has yet to play in the series, standout forward Evan Mobley (ankle) sat Game 2, super-sub De'Andre Hunter (thumb) is also hurt, and now top scorer Donovan Mitchell is battling through a calf strain.

As the rotation thins, Cleveland’s dependency on big man Jarrett Allen grows for Game 3. He’s the focus of my best NBA picks and Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions for Friday, May 9.

Who will win Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 3?

Oddsmakers are still giving Cleveland the benefit of the doubt, setting the Cavaliers as short road favorites. However, the Pacers have momentum and home court on their side while the Cavs are really banged up at the worst possible time. Indiana puts a 3-0 strange hold on Cleveland in Game 3.

Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction

My best bet: Jarrett Allen SGP 10+ points/10+ rebounds (-145 at bet365)

Jarrett Allen did all he could to keep the Cleveland Cavaliers competitive in Game 2, scoring 22 points and snatching 12 rebounds over 38 minutes of action. He also blocked three shots and dished out three assists while going to the foul line eight times – making all eight free throws.

Even if Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter return for Game 3, the 7-footer has to anchor the interior and clean the glass for the Cavs. Allen has an advantage over a smaller Indiana Pacers frontcourt and they are just fine trading out size for speed in this series.

Game 3 projections call for at least 13 points from Allen, who scored 12 points in the series opener. He shot 6 for 7 in Game 1 but didn’t get the touches he should have, with Cleveland guards Ty Jerome and Donovan Mitchell combining for 50 shots. Allen was a little more involved in Game 2, going 7 for 9 and should continue to be a focal points for the Cavs, if they know what's good for them.

As for his rebounding forecasts for Game 3, Allen is pegged between 9.4 and 11 boards. He’s grabbed 10 or more rebounds in four of his six postseason games and advanced metrics show Allen in position for 16.2 rebounding chance per game in the playoffs. That soared to 25.0 chances in Game 2 with Cleveland’s frontcourt running thin.

You could go and bet the “Yes” double double prop for Allen which is priced at -155, giving you the options of 10-plus points, rebounds, assists, blocks, or steals. But let’s be real: An Allen double double is coming via buckets and boards and a 10+ points/10+ rebounds same game parlay comes in a dime cheaper. Every penny counts in the playoffs.

Cavaliers vs Pacers same-game parlay

Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 rebounds

Jarrett Allen Over 13.5 points

Jarrett Allen Over 0.5 blocks 

As mentioned above, projections are calling for 11 rebounds from Allen and should the Cavs frontcourt be missing key bodies, it will be up to the 7-footer to clean the glass.

Allen is pegged for 13.5 points by Game 3 projections. He upped his scoring in Game 2 and did damage at the foul line.

The Pacers attacking style walked into three blocks from Allen in Game 2 and he’s record at least one swat in three of Cleveland’s six postseason games so far.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Cavaliers vs Pacers odds

Cavaliers vs Pacers live odds

Cavaliers vs Pacers opening odds

  • Spread: Cleveland -2.5 (-110) | Indiana +2.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Cleveland -150 | Indiana +125
  • Over/Under: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Cavaliers vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • With the Pacers stealing both games in Cleveland, bookies opened the Cavaliers as 1-point road favorites and early money has shown up on the visitor, pushing this spread to Cavs -2.5. That initial opinion could be an indicator that Cleveland could return all or some of those missing pieces on Friday.
  • The Over/Under total hit the board at 228.5 and is now up to 229.5 points, again a sign that Cleveland could get standouts back for this critical Game 3.
  • According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are siding with the Cavaliers as short road chalk while 60% of total picks are taking the Over.

Cavaliers vs Pacers trend

As of May 8, home teams are just 26-24 SU and 22-27-1 ATS (45%) so far in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Pacers.

How to watch Cavaliers vs Pacers

Location Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date Friday, 5-9-2025
Tip-off 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT, truTV, max

Cavaliers vs Pacers latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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