NBA Picks

The Bucks have lost four straight games in blowout fashion, while the Jazz seem to be actually trying rather than actively tanking in their last few outings. It's hard to justify Milwaukee being a 10-point favorite over anyone right now, so I'm taking Utah to cover.

The Bucks will have to consider shutting down Giannis Antetokounmpo if their losing streak continues, so tonight’s matchup with the Utah Jazz feels like a must-win. We haven’t seen the best of Giannis yet since his return from a calf injury, but I like the Over on his points total here.

He scored 24 points in 26 minutes against Atlanta this week, making 10 of his 15 shots, and he should feast against a Jazz team that’s short in the frontcourt without Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler. Antetokounmpo is averaging 64% from the field this year, so look for him to live in the paint tonight.

Jaylen Wells is scoring a career-best 12.7 points per game on the season, though his scoring average is up over the last month. Across his last 14 games, Wells has averaged 15.9 points, and he’s dropped 20.3 across his last three.

In that span, Wells scored 14+ eight times overall and in three of six at home. In three matchups with the Clippers, Wells posted scoring totals of 16, 17 and 13. The Grizzlies are sharing the love on offense, but Wells has been the most consistent scoring option over the last five weeks.

This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 3.0 3-point attempts per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in a tough matchup.. The LA Clippers have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.. The LA Clippers check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Steph Curry’s absence has thrown Podziemski into a bigger role, and he’s got a path to eye-popping numbers again tonight, even against the Oklahoma City Thunder’s swarming defense. Podziemski has scored 18+ points in four of his past six contests, while balancing a heavy minutes load, and he’s jacked up 18 shots in each of his last two games.

But it’s his rebounding that makes this such an attractive prop. He’s grabbed 7+ boards in seven straight outings, including two 15-rebound efforts, and Golden State will need his savvy work on the glass to hold off the relentless Thunder.

Chet Holmgren has been on a tear, and with Isaiah Hartenstein sidelined, I expect him to continue his strong play against a depleted Warriors frontcourt at home. Holmgren has averaged 27.9 points+rebounds in 24 games without Hartenstein, hitting the Over on this line 13 times. 

Over his last six games, Holmgren has averaged 16.3 points and 12.2 rebounds, averaging 16 points and 18 boards in his last two home games. He’s reached the Over in four of his last five home games and delivered 28+ points+rebounds in all three matchups with Golden State.

The Charlotte Hornets have won 10 straight on the road and face an inconsistent Phoenix Suns team that has shot only 41% during a 5–5 stretch. Charlotte is deeper, healthier, and has too much firepower for Phoenix to deal with, and is a good bet to keep their road winning streak intact.