There's just two races left until the NASCAR Cup Series odds field is trimmed for the playoff chase, so the intensity will be dialed up at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday afternoon.
My Dollar Tree 301 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks have identified three drivers who could move their way up the point standings with an upset win.
See why my free picks for Aug. 23 believe Carson Hocevar is live at a crazy price.
NASCAR Dollar Tree 301 sleeper picks
Picks made on 8-21.
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NASCAR Dollar Tree 301 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
Kalshi probability: 9%
Chase Briscoe enters Sunday in great form, finishing no worse than sixth in four straight races. He's posted a 100+ driver rating in five of his last seven starts, including his win at Chicagoland.
Briscoe recorded a runner-up result at Richmond last week in which he got to eventual winner Joey Logano's bumper, but just couldn't get by. He led a race-high 171 laps in defeat.
The No. 19 driver has been 10th or better in three straight trips to New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He snuck his way up to second here in 2024, then picked up a stage win and led 19 laps in a 10th-place finish last year.
Play to 12%.
Sleeper pick to win: Josh Berry
Kalshi probability: 6%
We were able to get Josh Berry at a fantastic price in this space last week, but now the secret is out. Still, this price is acceptable, and I'd even play it at 7%.
Berry shines at certain small/flat tracks, and New Hampshire is one of them. He leads all active drivers in both driver rating (111.8) and average finish (2.5) here, albeit from a very small two-race sample size.
The No. 21 pilot was third here in 2024 and second in 2025, picking up stage points in all four opportunities while leading 10 laps.
Sleeper pick to win: Carson Hocevar
Kalshi probability: 1%
Spirits have to be low in the Carson Hocevar camp after the young driver mis-shifted and blew the engine in a last-place finish at Richmond last week. However, that mishap seems to have a created a great buy opportunity on the playoff contender, who's sat in the 7% range for most oval races in 2026.
Hocevar was a modest 17th in his first Cup Series try here in 2024, but built on that with an 11th-place result last season. He finished fifth in both stages and narrowly missed a 100 driver rating (99).
Remarkably, Richmond represented Hocevar's first DNF of the year, so he's made great strides in 2026 in terms of keeping his nose clean. He's also sixth in average starting position this season, so this price may not last after qualifying. He started sixth here last year.
Play to 6%
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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