🏁South Point 400: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Chase Briscoe (8%) — can carry over strong form from Kansas.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Austin Cindric (3%) — strong late run getting overlooked.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Ryan Preece Top 10 (28%) — a winning ticket in five of last six overall.
- Track: Bottom groove preferred, but clean air dictates best path.
- Weather: Sunny and hot.
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South Point 400 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full South Point 400 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 20% |
| Denny Hamlin | 17% |
| Christopher Bell | 13% |
| Chase Briscoe | 8% |
| William Byron | 7% |
| Tyler Reddick | 7% |
| Joey Logano | 6% |
| Ty Gibbs | 6% |
| Ryan Blaney | 5% |
| Chase Elliott | 4% |
Odds as of 10-3. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
South Point 400 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Chase Briscoe (8%)
- Outright: Austin Cindric (3%)
- Top 10: Ryan Preece (28%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — Two wins and a second in last three overall.
- ❄️ Chris Buescher — No Top 10s in 10 straight.
Track breakdown: What wins at South Point 400?
- Drivers prefer the bottom groove early but will transition to the higher lanes as the race goes on, seeking clean air and trying to save tires.
- High track temperatures will drastically impact the car's balance, forcing drivers and crew chiefs to decide between handling and speed.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- A non-playoff driver has never won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (since 2018).
- Only one pole winner has ever won at Las Vegas (Kyle Busch, 2009), and over 37% of race winners have come from outside the Top 10.
Drivers to watch
- Brad Keselowski (2018) and Alex Bowman (2022) are tied for the deepest in the field that an active race winner has started at Las Vegas (13th). Matt Kenseth holds the overall record, going from 25th to first in 2004.
Odds movement & market notes
- I can't imagine Kyle Larson not going off favored at around 20%. His recent form both here and overall is too good to ignore.
- I could see Christopher Bell narrowing the gap to Denny Hamlin for second-choice status. Bell is second only to Larson in average starting position at Las Vegas (5.1 to 5.6) since 2023.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Chase Briscoe (8%)
Success at Kansas last Sunday can transfer to similar Vegas oval.
- Track Fit: Fourth in last year's rendition of this event.
- Recent Form: Top 6 in eight of last 13 races.
- Market Value: 9% is fair value.
Risk: Has never won on this course.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 2.
Pick 2: Austin Cindric (3%)
Kansas effort caught the eye.
- Track Fit: Sixth in March of 2025 here, the last time he started inside the Top 30.
- Recent Form: Has averaged as Top 10 finish across last seven overall.
- Market Value: Still a buyer at 4%.
Risk: 3-for-181 all-time at this level.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 2.
Best top finish predictions
Pick: Ryan Preece Top 10 (28%)
No. 60 pilot in peak form in playoffs.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in two of last three here.
- Recent Form: No worse than 10th in five of last six starts.
- Market Value: Play to 32%.
Risk: Just one win at this level, so ceiling is limited.
Pick made on Saturday, Oct. 2.
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How to watch the South Point 400
| Location: | Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Start time: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 South Point 400.
South Point 400 weather
Temperatures will hit 90 degrees in Las Vegas on race day, and there's little cloud cover or wind expected. Hot conditions could lead to a slicker race track, and possibly some spin outs.
Previous South Point 400 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota |
| 2024 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2023 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | Ford |
| 2021 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota |
South Point 400 FAQs
When is the 2026 South Point 400?
The South Point 400 will go green just after 5:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Where will the 2026 South Point 400 be held?
Las Vegas Motor Speedway will host the South Point 400.
Who is the 2026 South Point 400 favorite?
Kyle Larson is favored to win the South Point 400.
Who won the South Point 400 last year?
Denny Hamlin won the South Point 400 last season.
How do South Point 400 props work?
You can pick drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 in addition to the outright win.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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