🏁Hollywood Casino 400: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Chase Briscoe (6%) — getting overlooked after two straight DNFs.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Joey Logano (5%) — insane value on a driver in terrific form.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Josh Berry Top 10 (25%) — late-season form remains strong.
- Track: Multiple grooves can be made to work, but clean air is essential.
- Weather: Ideal conditions are expected.
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Hollywood Casino 400 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Hollywood Casino 400 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 18% |
| Kyle Larson | 18% |
| Christopher Bell | 14% |
| Tyler Reddick | 12% |
| Ryan Blaney | 8% |
| Ty Gibbs | 7% |
| Chase Elliott | 7% |
| Bubba Wallace | 7% |
| Chase Briscoe | 6% |
| Joey Logano | 5% |
Odds as of 9-26. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Hollywood Casino 400 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Chase Briscoe (6%)
- Outright: Joey Logano (5%)
- Top 10: Josh Berry (25%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — Sixth or better in five of last six.
- ❄️ Brad Keselowski — No Top 10s in six straight.
Track breakdown: What wins at Kansas Speedway?
- The bottom groove is generally preferred, as it's easier on tires, but if the air is cleaner on the top lane, drivers will often go there instead.
- The fuel window is 45-50 laps, and you'll often see green-flag pit stops at Kansas. Under yellow-flag conditions, look for two-tire gambles as crew chiefs try to get aggressive and preserve track position.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- A playoff driver has won the Kansas fall race in six of the last eight years.
- Pole winners have accounted for nearly 22% of all victories at Kansas.
Drivers to watch
- Christopher Bell leads all active Cup Series drivers in average starting position at Kansas (7.8). He's won the pole four times.
- Tyler Reddick won from the pole in the spring race here.
Odds movement & market notes
- I truly don't understand the price on Joey Logano (5%). He won last week and is a three-time winner at Kansas. Assuming he qualifies well, expect him to take action.
- I expect Bubba Wallace to come down from 7%. His recent form doesn't justify this price, and I think his lone win from 2022 here has driven the early action.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Chase Briscoe to win (6%)
Can get back on the beam at this oval.
- Track Fit: Fourth or better in three straight Kansas races.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in seven of 10 races prior to two straight DNFs.
- Market Value: Go to 8%.
Risk: Only one Cup Series win at a 1 1/2-mile track.
Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.
Pick 2: Joey Logano to win (5%)
Too hot to ignore.
- Track Fit: A three-time Kansas winner.
- Recent Form: First and third in last two races, 90+ laps led in each.
- Market Value: Way off, play all the way to 10%.
Risk: Just 11th in average rating at intermediate/large ovals since 2023.
Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Josh Berry to finish Top 10 (25%)
Has outrun his odds often over his last eight races.
- Track Fit: Sixth at Kansas in 2025, won at sister track (Las Vegas) earlier last year.
- Recent Form: A winning ticket in seven of last eight overall.
- Market Value: Play to 29%.
Risk: His pit crew is one of the worst among chartered drivers.
Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.
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How to watch the Hollywood Casino 400
| Location: | Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Start time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400.
Kansas Speedway weather
The high temperature for Sunday's race is expected to be just 77 degrees, with calm winds and only a 15% chance of rain.
Previous Hollywood Casino 400 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Chase Elliott | Chevrolet |
| 2024 | Ross Chastain | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Tyler Reddick | Toyota |
| 2022 | Bubba Wallace | Toyota |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
Hollywood Casino 400 FAQs
When is the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400?
The Hollywood Casino 400 is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 22.
Where will the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 be held?
Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS is the host track for the Hollywood Casino 400.
Who is the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 favorite?
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are co-favored at 18%.
Who won the Hollywood Casino 400 last year?
Chase Elliott is the defending champion of this race.
How do Hollywood Casino 400 props work?
Top 3, 5 and 10 markets are all in play in addition to the outright win.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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