NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks: Kyle Larson Secures Victory

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 27, 2026 , 09:50 PM ET • 4 min read

Statement made at Kansas by Kyle Larson who delivered a crushing performance at the Hollywood Casino 400, sweeping Stages 1 and 2 and controlling the race from the front row.

Kyle Larson NASCAR Cup Series
Photo By - Reuters Connect. NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (5) holds up a trophy after winning the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.

Last updated: Sunday, Sept. 27 at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Total domination with a clutch finish. Kyle Larson turned the Hollywood Casino 400 into his personal playground on Sunday, leading 235 laps and pocketing a maximum 76-point haul.

When a late-race caution allowed Chase Briscoe to snatch the lead, Larson didn't blink—repassing the No. 19 car inside the final seven laps to lock down his fourth career win at Kansas Speedway and tighten his grip on the Cup Series championship race.

🏁Hollywood Casino 400: Key takeaways

  • Winner: Kyle Larson (19%) sweeps both stages and pacing the field for a staggering 235 of 267 laps.
  • Best post-qualifying prediction: Ryan Preece Top 10 (29%) — Been knocking on the door in similar spots, price is fair.
  • Best pre-qualifying prediction: Chase Briscoe (6%) — getting overlooked after two straight DNFs.
  • Best pre-qualifying value: Joey Logano (5%) — insane value on a driver in terrific form.
  • Best pre-qualifying prop: Josh Berry Top 10 (25%) — late-season form remains strong.
  • Track: Multiple grooves can be made to work, but clean air is essential.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain.

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Hollywood Casino 400 odds: Favorites & full field

Check out the full Hollywood Casino 400 starting lineup, set via metric after qualifying was rained out.

 

Driver Name Kalshi
Probability
Kyle Larson 19%
Denny Hamlin 18%
Christopher Bell 14%
Tyler Reddick 12%
Ryan Blaney 7%
Ty Gibbs 7%
Chase Briscoe 7%
Chase Elliott 6%
Joey Logano 6%
Bubba Wallace 5%

Odds as of 9-27. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.


Outright picks: Winner predictions

❌ Pick 1: Chase Briscoe to win (6%)

Can get back on the beam at this oval.

  • Track Fit: Fourth or better in three straight Kansas races.
  • Recent Form: Sixth or better in seven of 10 races prior to two straight DNFs.
  • Market Value: Go to 8%.

Risk: Only one Cup Series win at a 1 1/2-mile track.

Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.

❌ Pick 2: Joey Logano to win (5%)

Too hot to ignore.

  • Track Fit: A three-time Kansas winner.
  • Recent Form: First and third in last two races, 90+ laps led in each.
  • Market Value: Way off, play all the way to 10%.

Risk: Just 11th in average rating at intermediate/large ovals since 2023.

Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.


Best top finish predictions

❌ Pick 1: Josh Berry to finish Top 10 (25%)

Has outrun his odds often over his last eight races.

  • Track Fit: Sixth at Kansas in 2025, won at sister track (Las Vegas) earlier last year.
  • Recent Form: A winning ticket in seven of last eight overall.
  • Market Value: Play to 29%.

Risk: His pit crew is one of the worst among chartered drivers.

Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 26.

✅ Pick 2: Ryan Preece to finish Top 10 (29%)

Has been in strong form down the stretch.

  • Track Fit: 11th at both Kansas and Vegas earlier this year.
  • Recent Form: Average finish of 9.4 last five overall.
  • Market Value: Cutoff point is 31%.

Risk: Just one Cup Series win all-time.

Pick made on Sunday, Sept. 27.

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How to watch the Hollywood Casino 400

Location: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026
Start time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: USA

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400.


Kansas Speedway weather

The high temperature for Sunday's race is expected to be just 75 degrees, with calm winds and only a 25% chance of rain.


Previous Hollywood Casino 400 winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2025 Chase Elliott Chevrolet
2024 Ross Chastain Chevrolet
2023 Tyler Reddick Toyota
2022 Bubba Wallace Toyota
2021 Kyle Larson Chevrolet

Hollywood Casino 400 FAQs

When is the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400?

The Hollywood Casino 400 is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 27.

Where will the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 be held?

Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS is the host track for the Hollywood Casino 400.

Who is the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 favorite?

Kyle Larson is favored at 19%.

Who won the Hollywood Casino 400 last year?

Chase Elliott is the defending champion of this race.

How do Hollywood Casino 400 props work?

Top 3, 5 and 10 markets are all in play in addition to the outright win.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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