The NASCAR Cup Series odds go through Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin with six races left in the playoff chase, so it's not shocking to see them atop the board for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
However, my South Point 400 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks are not ready to hand the race over to either driver.
See why my free picks for Sunday, Oct. 4 include Austin Cindric.
NASCAR South Point 400 sleeper picks
Picks made on 10-2. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR South Point 400 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
Kalshi probability: 8%
Chase Briscoe was able to shake off two DNFs in a row with a bang-up fourth at Kansas last week, leading 23 laps and placing fourth in Stage 2. Las Vegas is a similar venue, so I'm backing Briscoe to 9% to carry that form over.
The No. 19 driver finished sixth or better seven times in a 10-race span prior to the aforementioned DNFs, leading a total of 211 laps.
Briscoe was fourth in the Las Vegas fall race in 2025, and eighth in the 2026 spring event.
Sleeper pick to win: Austin Cindric
Kalshi probability: 3%
Play to 4%.
Austin Cindric is quietly putting together a strong stretch run, with an average finish of 8.14 across his last seven races. That includes his runner-up effort at Kansas last week in which he posted his highest driver rating of the season (121.2).
Cindric had the misfortune of starting 31st in his last two Vegas appearances. However, he ran sixth in the March 2025 race, when he rolled off the grid in third.
Sleeper pick to win: Ryan Preece
Kalshi probability: 2%
Ryan Preece is in career-best form at the moment, hitting the Top 10 in five of his last six overall, including his first-ever Cup Series win at Daytona. I'm happy to throw a dart with the No. 60 driver at 2%.
Preece has an average finish of 7.67 across his last three starts at Las Vegas, including a third in March of 2025. He scored stage points three times in that span.
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