Kyle Larson (84%) is getting closer to a NASCAR Cup Series odds repeat, as he holds a commanding 73-point edge in the standings over Denny Hamlin (7%) with just two races left in 2026.
Chase Briscoe's late run has cooled off, while Hamlin has gone the wrong way since the start of the postseason.
Let's look at the latest NASCAR Cup Series odds.
NASCAR Cup Series odds
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 84% |
| Denny Hamlin | 7% |
| Christopher Bell | 3% |
| Chase Briscoe | 3% |
| Joey Logano | 3% |
Odds as of 10-26. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
NASCAR Cup Series odds movement
- Kyle Larson entered the postseason at 7% while riding a 51-race losing streak. He won three of the first eight playoff races to soar to 84%.
- Denny Hamlin (39% to 7%) has lost significant ground since the playoffs began.
- Chase Briscoe (8% to 3%) has dropped off after failing to build on his two-race winning streak.
NASCAR Cup Series favorites
Kyle Larson (84% probability)
Kyle Larson has gotten hot when it matters the most, finishing no worse than sixth in nine of his last 11 races. He picked up his third win of the playoffs in dramatic fashion at Talladega.
Larson paces the Cup Series in laps led this season (1,238).
Denny Hamlin (7% probability)
Larson's surge has coincided with a drop-off in form for Denny Hamlin.
The No. 11 driver is winless in 18 races since ripping off three scores in a row, culminating at Pocono. Hamlin has just one driver rating above 100 in his last four overall.
NASCAR Cup Series recent winners
Here's a look at the last 10 Cup Series Champions and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
| Season | Driver | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kyle Larson (2) | 15% |
| 2024 | Joey Logano (3) | 8% |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | 9% |
| 2022 | Joey Logano (2) | 7% |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | 8% |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | 8% |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch (2) | 14% |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | 11% |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | 11% |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson (7) | 13% |
NASCAR Cup Series betting trends
- Team Penske has taken three of the last four championships.
- Hendrick Motorsports has the most overall titles (15).
- The last driver to go back-to-back was Jimmie Johnson in 2010, when he completed an unprecedented five-peat.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NASCAR Cup Series Odds FAQs
Kyle Larson is the current favorite to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Kyle Larson won his second NASCAR Cup Series title in 2025.
