Could this finally be the year Denny Hamlin wins a championship? It certainly looks that way based on the current 2026 NASCAR Cup Series odds.
Hamlin has pulled away to a clear-cut lead over former favorite Tyler Reddick, who is fighting with Ryan Blaney for second-choice status.
Let's look at the latest NASCAR Cup Series odds.
NASCAR Cup Series odds
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 41% |
| Tyler Reddick | 11% |
| Ryan Blaney | 11% |
| Christopher Bell | 10% |
| Kyle Larson | 7% |
| Chase Briscoe | 6% |
| Ty Gibbs | 6% |
| Chase Elliott | 3% |
Odds as of 8-5. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NASCAR Cup Series odds movement
- Tyler Reddick (18% to 11%) was the biggest faller over the past month. He hasn't won a race since April 19 following a roaring start to 2026.
- Reddick's loss has been the gain of Denny Hamlin (33% to 41%), who's solidified his standing at the top of the pecking order with three second-half wins.
- Chase Elliott (6% to 3%) is also falling as Hendrick Motorsports struggles in general.
NASCAR Cup Series favorites
Denny Hamlin (41% probability)
Denny Hamlin ripped off three straight wins before back-to-back struggles on road/street courses.
Since then, he's tallied three Top 5s over a four-race span.
In Denny Hamlin's worst 5-race stretch this season, he had an Average Finish of 12; that's still better than the 𝙗𝙚𝙨𝙩 5-race stretch of 15 drivers.
— Daniel Céspedes (@_DanielCespedes) August 5, 2026
Every driver's best and worst 5-race Average Finish this season: pic.twitter.com/HTNVVVkhEb
Tyler Reddick (11% probability)
Tyler Reddick's early-season cushion has evaporated as he now sits second in the point standings.
The No. 45 driver has gone 13 races without a win, with no Top 5s in six straight overall.
Ryan Blaney (11% probability)
Ryan Blaney's eight-race Top 10 streak ended two races ago, and his string of seven straight races with at least one lap led ended last time out at Indy.
Still, he sits third in points while the Fords seem to be gaining steam across the board following a slow start to the campaign.
NASCAR Cup Series recent winners
| Season | Driver | Race wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kyle Larson (2) | 3 |
| 2024 | Joey Logano (3) | 4 |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | 3 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano (2) | 4 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | 10 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | 5 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch (2) | 5 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | 3 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | 8 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson (7) | 5 |
NASCAR Cup Series betting trends
- Team Penske has taken three of the last four championships.
- Hendrick Motorsports has the most overall titles (15).
- The last driver to go back-to-back was Jimmie Johnson in 2010, when he completed an unprecedented five-peat.
NASCAR Cup Series Odds FAQs
Denny Hamlin is the current favorite to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Kyle Larson won his second NASCAR Cup Series title in 2025.
