Kyle Larson (46%) is getting closer to a NASCAR Cup Series odds repeat, as he holds a commanding 49-point edge in the standings over Denny Hamlin with just four races left in 2026.
Hamlin has cooled off in recent weeks, while Chase Briscoe has caught fire, albeit probably not in time.
Let's look at the latest NASCAR Cup Series odds.
NASCAR Cup Series odds
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 46% |
| Denny Hamlin | 24% |
| Christopher Bell | 12% |
| Chase Briscoe | 8% |
| Ryan Blaney | 7% |
| Joey Logano | 3% |
Odds as of 10-13. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NASCAR Cup Series odds movement
- Kyle Larson entered the postseason at 7% while riding a 51-race losing streak. He won two of the first four chase races, and has since vaulted up to 46%.
- Denny Hamlin (39% to 24%) has lost significant ground since the playoffs began.
- Chase Briscoe (2% to 8%) has risen up the ranks on the heels of two straight wins, but still faces a significant 65-point gap in the standings.
NASCAR Cup Series favorites
Kyle Larson (46% probability)
Kyle Larson has gotten hot when it matters the most, finishing no worse than sixth in eight of his last nine races. That includes his only two wins (WWT Raceway, Kansas) of the season.
Larson paces the Cup Series in laps led this season (1,215).
Denny Hamlin (24% probability)
Larson's surge has coincided with a drop-off in form for Denny Hamlin.
The No. 11 driver is winless in 16 races since ripping off three scores in a row, culminating at Pocono. Hamlin has just two driver ratings above 100 in his last eight overall.
NASCAR Cup Series recent winners
Here's a look at the last 10 Cup Series Champions and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
| Season | Driver | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kyle Larson (2) | +550 |
| 2024 | Joey Logano (3) | +1100 |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano (2) | +1400 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch (2) | +600 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | +800 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | +800 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson (7) | +700 |
NASCAR Cup Series betting trends
- Team Penske has taken three of the last four championships.
- Hendrick Motorsports has the most overall titles (15).
- The last driver to go back-to-back was Jimmie Johnson in 2010, when he completed an unprecedented five-peat.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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NASCAR Cup Series Odds FAQs
Kyle Larson is the current favorite to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Kyle Larson won his second NASCAR Cup Series title in 2025.
