Last updated: Saturday, Sept. 19 @ 11 p.m. ET
🏁Bass Pro Shops Night Race: Key takeaways
- Race winner: Joey Logano (7%) won the Bristol Night Race, which was punctuated by a brawl between Carson Hocevar and Ryan Blaney.
- Best post-qualifying prediction: Alex Bowman Top 10 (38%) — can build off momentum from last week.
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Ryan Blaney (13%) — hard to knock his recent form here.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Christopher Bell (12%) — the defending champ of this race is getting overlooked.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Chase Briscoe Top 3 (15%) — Value present on underrated short-track racer.
- Track: Managing tire wear and avoiding pit road mishaps help keep track position.
- Weather: Hot with a chance of thunderstorms.
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Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 23% |
| Ty Gibbs | 14% |
| Denny Hamlin | 14% |
| Ryan Blaney | 11% |
| Christopher Bell | 10% |
| Chase Briscoe | 6% |
| Joey Logano | 7% |
| Carson Hocevar | 5% |
| William Byron | 5% |
| Tyler Reddick | 4% |
Odds as of 9-19. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions (updated Saturday)
- Top 10: Alex Bowman (38%) ❌
- Outright: Ryan Blaney (13%) ❌
- Outright: Christopher Bell (12%) ❌
- Top 3: Chase Briscoe (15%) ❌
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — Sixth or better in four of last five races.
- ❄️ Chris Buescher — Only one Top 20 over his last five starts.
Track breakdown: What wins at Bristol Motor Speedway?
- Bristol Motor Speedway is notoriously tough on tires. As the race progresses, the upper portion of the turns tends to collect “marbles,” or pieces of worn tire. Staying clear of them and keeping the car in the bottom lane is critical.
- Pit road can also be challenging to navigate, so qualifying performance matters. Drivers who qualify well can secure more favorable pit-road stall selections, which can provide an advantage during pit stops.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Back-to-back victories are relatively common at Bristol, with Kyle Larson the last to do it in 2024-25. Kyle Busch accomplished the feat in 2017-18, as did Brad Keselowski in 2011-12.
- Starting position has played a significant role at Bristol over the years. Of the NASCAR Cup Series winners at Bristol Motor Speedway, 75 — nearly 60% — started inside the Top 5, while more than three-quarters of all winners have begun the race in the Top 10.
Drivers to watch
- Tyler Reddick leads all Cup Series drivers in average starting position this year (9.1).
Odds movement & market notes
- The gap between Kyle Larson (23%) and the rest of the field grew after qualifying was rained out.
- Ryan Blaney was hurt the most of the main contenders, as he'll start 29th due in part to an accident last week.
- Based on season-long market trends, I think Kyle Larson (19%) and Ty Gibbs (14%) will come back to the pack a bit.
- Based on those same trends, Denny Hamlin (13%), Ryan Blaney (13%), and Christopher Bell (12%) all stand to gain.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Ryan Blaney (13%)
Knocking on the door of a win here.
- Track Fit: Sixth or better in four straight here, with 268 laps led.
- Recent Form: Two DNFs in last three tries obscures solid form, including New Hampshire win.
- Market Value: Fair line is 15%.
Risk: Lifetime win percentage hovers at 5%.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
Pick 2: Christopher Bell (12%)
Speeding penalty in April doomed his chance at back-to-back Bristol wins.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in six straight from 2022-25.
- Recent Form: Top 10 in eight of last 11 overall.
- Market Value: 15% is the cutoff.
Risk: Just one win all year.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Chase Briscoe Top 3 (15%)
No. 19 driver is solid on short tracks.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in four of last five here.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in seven of last 10 overall.
- Market Value: Play to 20%.
Risk: Only two Top 3s in nine starts following his Chicagoland win.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
Pick 2: Alex Bowman Top 10 (38%)
No. 48 pilot exits best effort of '26.
- Track Fit: Led multiple laps in four of last five tries here.
- Recent Form: Second at Gateway, 10th at Richmond.
- Market Value: Play to 40%.
Risk: Has never won at Bristol at the Cup Series level.
Pick made on Saturday, Sept. 19.
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How to watch the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
| Location: | Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Start time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Bristol Motor Speedway weather
Temperatures will peak at 85 degrees, and there is a 45% chance of thunderstorms at green-flag time.
Previous Bass Pro Shops Night Race winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2024 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota |
| 2022 | Chris Buescher | Ford |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
Bass Pro Shops Night Race FAQs
When is the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
The Bass Pro Shops Night Race will begin just after 7:30 p.m. ET on USA.
Where will the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race be held?
Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN will host the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Who is the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race favorite?
Kyle Larson is favored to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Who won the Bass Pro Shops Night Race last year?
Christopher Bell is the defending winner of this race.
How do Bass Pro Shops Night Race props work?
You can pick drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 in addition to outright win picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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