🏁Bass Pro Shops Night Race: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Ryan Blaney (13%) — hard to knock his recent form here.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Christopher Bell (12%) — the defending champ of this race is getting overlooked.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Chase Briscoe Top 3 (15%) — Value present on underrated short-track racer.
- Track: Managing tire wear and avoiding pit road mishaps help keep track position.
- Weather: Calm and clear, but hot.
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Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Bass Pro Shops Night Race field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 19% |
| Ty Gibbs | 14% |
| Denny Hamlin | 13% |
| Ryan Blaney | 13% |
| Christopher Bell | 12% |
| Chase Briscoe | 8% |
| Joey Logano | 6% |
| Carson Hocevar | 4% |
| Chase Elliott | 4% |
| Tyler Reddick | 3% |
Odds as of 9-18. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions (updated Friday)
- Outright: Ryan Blaney (13%)
- Outright: Christopher Bell (12%)
- Top 3: Chase Briscoe (15%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Kyle Larson — Sixth or better in four of last five races.
- ❄️ Chris Buescher — Only one Top 20 over his last five starts.
Track breakdown: What wins at Bristol Motor Speedway?
- Bristol Motor Speedway is notoriously tough on tires. As the race progresses, the upper portion of the turns tends to collect “marbles,” or pieces of worn tire. Staying clear of them and keeping the car in the bottom lane is critical.
- Pit road can also be challenging to navigate, so qualifying performance matters. Drivers who qualify well can secure more favorable pit-road stall selections, which can provide an advantage during pit stops.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Back-to-back victories are relatively common at Bristol, with Kyle Larson the last to do it in 2024-25. Kyle Busch accomplished the feat in 2017-18, as did Brad Keselowski in 2011-12.
- Starting position has played a significant role at Bristol over the years. Of the NASCAR Cup Series winners at Bristol Motor Speedway, 75 — nearly 60% — started inside the Top 5, while more than three-quarters of all winners have begun the race in the Top 10.
Drivers to watch
- Tyler Reddick leads all Cup Series drivers in average starting position this year (9.1).
Odds movement & market notes
- Based on season-long market trends, I think Kyle Larson (19%) and Ty Gibbs (14%) will come back to the pack a bit.
- Based on those same trends, Denny Hamlin (13%), Ryan Blaney (13%), and Christopher Bell (12%) all stand to gain.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Ryan Blaney (13%)
Knocking on the door of a win here.
- Track Fit: Sixth or better in four straight here, with 268 laps led.
- Recent Form: Two DNFs in last three tries obscures solid form, including New Hampshire win.
- Market Value: Fair line is 15%.
Risk: Lifetime win percentage hovers at 5%.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
Pick 2: Christopher Bell (12%)
Speeding penalty in April doomed his chance at back-to-back Bristol wins.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in six straight from 2022-25.
- Recent Form: Top 10 in eight of last 11 overall.
- Market Value: 15% is the cutoff.
Risk: Just one win all year.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
Best top finish predictions
Pick: Chase Briscoe Top 3 (15%)
No. 19 driver is solid on short tracks.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in four of last five here.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in seven of last 10 overall.
- Market Value: Play to 20%.
Risk: Only two Top 3s in nine starts following his Chicagoland win.
Pick made on Friday, Sept. 18.
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How to watch the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
| Location: | Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Start time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Bristol Motor Speedway weather
Temperatures will peak at 87 degrees, but will dip as the night goes on. There's just a 15% chance of rain. However, there's a 55% chance of rain on Friday, which could disrupt or cancel qualifying.
Previous Bass Pro Shops Night Race winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2024 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota |
| 2022 | Chris Buescher | Ford |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
Bass Pro Shops Night Race FAQs
When is the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
The Bass Pro Shops Night Race will begin just after 7:30 p.m. ET on USA.
Where will the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race be held?
Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN will host the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Who is the 2026 Bass Pro Shops Night Race favorite?
Kyle Larson is favored to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Who won the Bass Pro Shops Night Race last year?
Christopher Bell is the defending winner of this race.
How do Bass Pro Shops Night Race props work?
You can pick drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 in addition to outright win picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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