I've got three Hollywood Casino 400 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks worth backing as the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs heat up.
Joey Logano's victory at Bristol flew under the radar as Ryan Blaney and Carson Hocevar engaged in fisticuffs. I believe that's part of the reason why he's sitting at such a generous price ahead of Sunday's event at Kansas Speedway.
Read more in my free picks and NASCAR Cup Series odds analysis for September 27.
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 sleeper picks
Picks made on 9-25. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
Kalshi probability: 6%
I'm backing Chase Briscoe to 8% as he looks to shake off two DNFs in a row.
Briscoe ran sixth or better in seven of 10 races prior to the last two races. He led a total of 211 laps in four races prior to this recent skid.
The No. 19 driver has enjoyed success at Kansas since switching to Joe Gibbs Racing, running fourth or better three straight times.
Sleeper pick to win: Joey Logano
Kalshi probability: 5%
It's not often that a pilot posts two driver ratings of 130+ in a row, with a win and a third to show for it, and goes off at this price, but that's what we're looking at with Joey Logano heading into Sunday. There's lots of room here, as I'd go up to 10%.
Logano's second-half turnaround has been remarkable, as he's jumped from 20th to third in the point standings over the last 11 races. While his recent form at Kansas leaves something to be desired (three Top 10s in his last seven starts), he is a three-time winner here.
Sleeper pick to win: Ryan Preece
Kalshi probability: 1%
Ryan Preece has hit the Top 10 in four of his last five overall, including his epic win at Daytona. This is a crazy price, and I'd play Preece to 2%.
Preece has some decent results to run back to at Kansas, highlighted by a seventh with two stage placings in May 2025. Since switching to RFK Racing, Preece has compiled nine Top 10s in 20 races at intermediate/large ovals.
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