It's fair to say some NASCAR Cup Series drivers aren't the happiest campers after last week's big race in Texas. Of course, if you're Joey Logano, you're happy.
If you're Kyle Larson? Not so much. He threw the race lead away like it was a 20-point advantage against the New York Knicks and finished in fourth.
Not only did Larson miss out on the win, he missed out on a Top 3 finish bet, which a lot of handicappers touted him for in their NASCAR race picks. As most of these Telegram 'cappers bet with their emotions instead of quantitative facts, they'll probably fade Larson this week.
However, when the action starts on Sunday at 3:30 pm ET on FS1, the numbers — as well as my free betting picks — say the No. 5 driver could wreak havoc at Kansas Motor Speedway.
NASCAR prop picks for AdventHealth 400
- Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+110)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120)
- Kyle Busch over Joey Logano (+100)
NASCAR AdventHealth 400 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+110 at bet365)
Look, I understand why a lot of people are upset about how last week went for Kyle Larson. That said, I'd argue Texas is one of the most unpredictable tracks in NASCAR, and the fact that he still finished in the Top 5 is impressive given how his car was driving.
By the sounds of what I heard during and after the broadcast, Larson's car was looser than he made it out to be. I don't know if it was a grip issue or just a case where some guys benefited from good restarts. However, other drivers having similar issues found themselves wrecked. So, as much as Larson may have "choked the race away," he also did a good job of avoiding the worst possible outcome.
Now, he comes into Kansas Motor Speedway, a track where he leads all active drivers with over 703 laps led in 20 career starts. He won there last year in one of NASCAR's closest finishes, with a 0.001 edge. Add in the fact that Larson has another win to tout along with six Top 5s and nine Top 10s at Kansas, and it becomes clear this is a good spot for him to "rebound."
Although +110 to finish in the Top 3 feels short to some bettors, I have this priced closer to -115. The way some bookmakers have been treating NASCAR prop markets this year, I wouldn't be shocked to see a -140 price, especially had he hung on to win in Texas.
I'm willing to roll the dice on Larson this week. If nothing crazy happens and he avoids a costly crash, I could see him winning this race.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 at bet365)
We've already discussed Larson and his success at Kansas. Almost anytime NASCAR races at Kansas Motor Speedway, his name will be in the mix to win. We haven't discussed Chevy's overall dominance at the track.
Chevrolet swept both Kansas races in 2024, with Larson and Ross Chastain each securing a win. Chevy leads all manufacturers with 15 NASCAR Cup Series victories at Kansas, including a current streak as defending winners.
Hendrick Motorsports — Chevrolet’s flagship team — has been particularly dominant in 2025, leading 1,135 laps, over 400 more than any other team. They've achieved at least one Top 5 in every race this season, extending their streak to 19 consecutive races.
Alex Bowman, Larson’s Hendrick teammate, has a 7.2 average finish, while Chastain, driving for Trackhouse Racing, holds an 8.7 average finish at Kansas. That means there should be a good number of Chevy drivers closer to the front.
Of course, I know +120 might feel short. Once again, if the odds for Larson were a bit steeper, this number would be closer to -110, so I'm seeing a bit of value here.
Even if Larson isn't in contention, guys like Bowman, Chastain, and William Byron should be there in the final laps.
Kyle Busch over Joey Logano (+100 at bet365)
Kyle Busch's 2025 season has been underwhelming to say the least, but it's never too late to pick things up a bit.
Yes, Logano won last week, so going against him is risky. Nevertheless, historically speaking, Busch has been the better driver at Kansas.
Busch has two wins, 10 Top 5 finishes, and 16 Top 10s in 34 Kansas starts, compared to Logano’s three Top 5s and nine Top 10s in the same span.
Busch’s average finish at Kansas is 15.1, better than Logano’s 16.8, and he has a higher driver rating (92.0 vs. 86.5), if you care about that sort of thing.
Busch has also spent 69.3% of his laps at Kansas running inside the Top 15, which is the third-most among active drivers.
I have this priced at -110, so getting Busch at +100 represents value, buoyed by Logano's win last week.
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