NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions, Odds & Picks — Dover Motor Speedway

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola β€’ Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: May 17, 2026 , 05:11 PM ET β€’ 4 min read

Denny Hamlin wins the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway.

NASCAR Cup Series Denny Hamlin Brad Keselowski
Photo By - Reuters Connect. NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) races to the inside of driver Brad Keselowski (6) during the NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway

Last updated: Sunday, May 17 at 5:11 p.m. ET.

🏁NASCAR All-Star Race: Key takeaways

  • Outright winner: Denny Hamlin (+330) prevailed as the pre-race betting favorite.
  • Rounding out the podium: Chase Briscoe and Erik Jones finished second and third, respectively.
  • Best post-qualifying bet: Austin Cindric (-115) over Joey Logano — recent form here and overall makes No. 2 the pick.
  • Best pre-qualifying bet: Kyle Larson (+550) — Posted recent dominant efforts in All-Star Race and at Dover.
  • Best pre-qualifying value: Bubba Wallace (+4000) — Always gives it his all in All-Star Race. 
  • Best pre-qualifying prop bet: Ty Gibbs Top 3 (+400) — Owns solid form in limited starts at Dover.
  • Track: New engine and tire package from Bristol carries over to Dover, results could too.
  • Weather: Warm with little rain or wind to speak of.

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NASCAR All-Star Race odds: Favorites & full field

The NASCAR All-Star Race ran at 1 p.m. ET on FS1 on Sunday, May 17. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Driver DraftKings
Denny Hamlin +330
Christopher Bell +700
Ryan Blaney +700
Carson Hocevar +800
Kyle Larson +850
Ty Gibbs +850
Tyler Reddick +900
William Byron +1200
Chase Briscoe +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
Ross Chastain +1800
Kyle Busch +2000
Brad Keselowski +2200
Bubba Wallace +2500
Joey Logano +3500
Alex Bowman +3500
Chris Buescher +3500
Austin Cindric +3500
Connor Zilisch +8000
Ryan Preece +9000

Odds as of 5-17.

Check out the full NASCAR All-Star Race qualifying order.


Best bets card (updated Sunday)

  • βœ… Matchup: Austin Cindric (-115) over Joey Logano
  • ❌ Outright: Kyle Larson (+550)
  • ❌ Outright: Bubba Wallace (+4000)
  • ❌ Top 3: Ty Gibbs (+400)
  • βœ… Matchup: William Byron (+100) over Tyler Reddick

Who's hot? Who's not?

  • πŸ”₯ Ryan Preece — Average finish of 12.6 in last eight overall.
  • ❄️ Ryan Blaney — No better than 10th in four straight.

Track breakdown: What wins at Dover Motor Speedway?

  • NASCAR and officials at Dover Motor Speedway will try to widen the racing grooves and increase grip around the track ahead of the All-Star Race. Resin will be applied to the corners to help create multiple racing lanes, and tires will be dragged across the racing surface to lay down rubber and increase grip on the concrete oval.
  • The same 750-horsepower engine and left-side tire package that debuted at Bristol on April 12 will be introduced at Dover.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

Bettors should note that Sunday’s NASCAR All-Star Race will follow a much different format than the usual Cup Series race. All 36 full-time drivers will compete in two 75-lap stages before the field is reduced to 26 for a final 200-lap sprint to the finish.

NASCAR will invert the Top 26 drivers following the opening segment, forcing the top finishers in Stage 1 to race back through traffic during Stage 2. 

Drivers to watch

  • There are 19 drivers who are already locked into the final segment: Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Carson Hocevar, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen, and Bubba Wallace.
  • Six additional drivers can race their way into the final stage based on how they far in Stages 1 and 2. One additional driver will advance through a fan vote.

Odds movement & market notes

  • Carson Hocevar jumped up the board to +800 from +2000 despite only a decent qualifying run.
  • I was stunned to see Alex Bowman open at +1100, especially considering he's not locked into Stage 3. It's easy to see him drifting up in price.
  • As a three-time All-Star Race winner, it would not be shocking to see Kyle Larson take late action and fall from +550.

Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick 1: Kyle Larson to win (+550)

Larson has won this race at three different tracks.

  • Track Fit: Leads all active drivers in average finish at Dover (7.9).
  • Recent Form: Poor, but with excuses; two crashes and a road course were involved.
  • Market Value: +450 is the cutoff point.

Risk: Has missed the Top 20 in three straight overall.

Pick made on 5-16.

Pick 2: Bubba Wallace to win (+4000)

His Dover form is underrated.

  • Track Fit: Career-best seventh here last year.
  • Recent Form: Up-and-down, but toss his wreck at Talladega and 29th at Watkins Glen.
  • Market Value: Playable down to +2500.

Risk: Has never won at Dover.

Pick made on 5-16.


Best Top 3 bet

Pick: Ty Gibbs to finish Top 3 (+400)

Won the All-Star Open in 2024, has come into his own this season.

  • Track Fit: Third in average rating at Dover.
  • Recent Form: Third at Watkins Glen last week, his sixth Top 5 of 2026.
  • Market Value: +250 or better is fair.

Risk: Missed the Top 3 in three straight prior to last Sunday.

Pick made on 5-16.


Best matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick 1: William Byron (+100) over Tyler Reddick

Byron's recent bad luck at Dover is being weighed in too much.

  • Matchup Advantage: Byron has Top 10s in six of his last seven, factoring out Watkins Glen and Talladega.
  • Key Stat: Byron wrecked in consecutive races here, but ran fourth in three of his prior four.

Risk: Betting against Reddick has been tough to do in 2026.

Pick made on 5-16.

Pick 2: Austin Cindric (-115) over Joey Logano

Logano is hard to back given his current form.

  • Matchup Advantage: Logano has never won at Dover, finishing no better than 14th in four straight starts.
  • Key Stat: Cindric has a 10.4 average finish over his last seven races.

Risk: Logano is a two-time All-Star Race winner.

Pick made on 5-17.

How to watch the NASCAR All-Star Race

Location: Dover Motor Speedway, Dover, DE
Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Start time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race.


Dover Motor Speedway weather

Temperatures will reach 86F on Sunday in Dover, DE, with winds peaking at 7 mph. There's only a 10% chance of rain interrupting proceedings.


Previous NASCAR All-Star Race winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2025 Christopher Bell Toyota
2024 Joey Logano Ford
2023 Kyle Larson Chevrolet
2022 Ryan Blaney Ford
2021 Kyle Larson Chevrolet

NASCAR All-Star Race betting FAQ

When is the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race?

The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race festivities kick off on Sunday, May 17 at 1 p.m. ET on FS1.

Where will the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race be held?

Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE is hosting the NASCAR All-Star Race for the first time in 2026.

Who is the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race favorite?

Denny Hamlin is favored at +330.

Who won the NASCAR All-Star Race last year?

Christopher Bell won the race last year, when it was held at North Wilkesboro Speedway.

How do NASCAR All-Star Race prop bets work?

You can wager on drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10 instead of just to win. There are also head-to-head matchup props available.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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