The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox open up a crucial three-game set at Fenway Park as they jostle for postseason positioning in a crowded AL East.
I’ll break down why tonight’s pitchers’ duel between Luis Gil and Lucas Giolito could lead to a low-scoring affair in my Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Friday, September 12.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
Yankees vs Red Sox best bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
The New York Yankees broke out of their offensive slump last night with a 9-3 victory against the Detroit Tigers, but the runs might be hard to come by for both clubs tonight when the Pinstripes visit the Boston Red Sox.
Boston starter Lucas Giolito is in the midst of a career year with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 23 outings. The right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts and just three earned runs overall across his last 19 innings.
Luis Gil has been just as good for the New York, posting a 3.31 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP since making his season debut in August. Gil has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five starts for both Giolito and Gil and that trend should hold tonight if both guys bring their “A” stuff.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Gil hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since his season debut in early August. He’s also averaging just five innings per start, so it’ll be difficult for him to run into too much trouble.
Aaron Judge has been very boom or bust this month – he hit a homer on Tuesday, went 0-for-3 on Thursday, and hit two dingers on Friday.
The reigning AL MVP looks to be back on track batting .333 this past week and I’m expecting more boom from Judge tonight in a crucial contest.
Yankees vs Red Sox SGP
- Under 8.5
- Luis Gil Under 2.5 earned runs
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Boston +105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+135) | Boston +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
Boston is 8-1 in its last nine meetings against New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Friday, September 12, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Luis Gil (3-1, 3.31 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (10-3, 3.38 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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