Yankees vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Wainwright Has Strong Outing Against Swing-Happy New York

With a couple of its big hitters out of the lineup, New York has dropped the first two games of the series against St. Louis. Will the home side get the sweep? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Cardinals.

Last Updated: Aug 7, 2022 11:32 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Adam Wainwright St. Louis Cardinals MLB
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We have the third and final matchup of this interleague series with the NL Central’s St. Louis Cardinals hosting the AL East’s New York Yankees. Frankie Montas will be making his Yanks debut on the mound following his deadline acquisition, while veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright is taking the bump for the Cards.

St. Louis has won each of the first two meetings in this series. Will it take care of business once again, or can New York grab a win as a short road favorite?

Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs Cardinals on Sunday, August 7.

Yankees vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees were unveiled as consensus favorites of –125 on Saturday morning and have since been bet up to –135. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.0 and has stayed at that number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Cardinals predictions

Picks made on 8/7/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs Cardinals game info

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date: Sunday, August 7, 2022
First pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Bally Sports

Yankees vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Frankie Montas (4-9, 3.18 ERA): Making his first start for New York since getting traded from Oakland, Montas will look to leave a great first impression with his new club. I expect Montas to do just that as he has been in great form recently. Over his last five starts, Montas is 1-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those numbers are even more impressive when you factor in that over that stretch, Montas went against Houston, Seattle (twice), and the Yankees. Montas boasts a five-pitch arsenal, though he primarily relies on his 4-seam, split finger, and sinker. When he does mix in that slider though, it often makes hitters look silly as he boasts a 38.5% whiff rate with that pitch.

Adam Wainwright (8-8, 3.11 ERA): A grizzled veteran who certainly needs no introduction, Wainwright has quietly produced an absolutely stellar campaign in what feels like his 100th season in MLB. On July 22, Wainwright had his worst start of the season when he allowed seven earned runs on five hits through five and 1-3 innings pitched against Cincinnati. This poor start led many to believe that regression could be coming for the 40-year-old. How did Wainwright respond? By throwing two straight gems, with one of those starts coming against the powerful Toronto Blue Jays. Over those two games, Wainwright is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Wainwright will now look to keep it going against one of the better lineups in the league.

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

Adam Wainwright has recorded at least five strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cardinals

Yankees vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Entering this contest in great form, St. Louis has won six straight and 11 of its last 15 games (73%). I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Adam Wainwright is slated to take the mound for the Cardinals.

As mentioned earlier, Gibson’s confidence should be extremely high in this game due to his recent pair of strong performances. St. Louis has now won in seven of Wainwright’s last 12 starts (58%).

Additionally, this Yankees lineup has struggled against Wainwright in the past. Through 120 career plate appearances against the Cardinals’ right-hander, this current Yankees roster possesses a mere .190 BA, .314 SLG, and .259 wOBA.

Following Wainwright is one of the better bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, the Cardinals’ relief staff ranks eighth in the league in ERA, seventh in WHIP, fifth in BA, sixth in SLG, fourth in wOBA, and 12th in hard-hit percentage.

St. Louis should have one of its best bullpen arms available for this contest due to the fact that Ryan Helsley did not pitch last night. Going against Wainwright and the rest of this pitching staff, New York may struggle to generate runs. 

Without Stanton and Rizzo, this lineup takes a step back in terms of its run production. Over the two contests without either of those guys playing, the Yankees are 0-2 while averaging just 1.5 runs scored and one extra-base hit per game.

In fact, the Yanks have been struggling recently even when those two have been healthy as they have now lost four straight and seven of their last games (64%). 

Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

While the Cardinals' pitching staff should shut New York down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Frankie Montas. We are getting a fairly generous number on this game’s total, which is primarily due to both of these stacked lineups.

However, as mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Montas has been dealing on the mound recently. Because of this dominant stretch of pitching, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in each of Montas’ last six starts.

This stretch of baseball is not a fluke for Montas, evidenced by his strong metrics. This season, he boasts a .301 xwOBA, .236 xBA, and .393 xSLG.

While it is a small sample size, this current Cardinals roster has struggled against Montas in the past. Through 18 career plate appearances against the Yankees’ right-hander, they possesses a mere .185 xBA, .225 xSLG, and .303 xwOBA.

Following Montas is one of the league’s most underrated bullpens. Since July 1, the Yankees’ relief pitching ranks 12th in the league in ERA, 13th in WHIP, 11th in BA, second in SLG, sixth in wOBA, and seventh in hard hit percentage.

Saving most of their big bullpen arms for today, the Bronx Bombers should get some good relief options from Clay Holmes, Scott Effross, and Wandy Peralta. None of those guys pitched last night, so all should be available.

Like New York, the Under has been a good trend for the Cardinals lately. There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in seven of St. Louis’ last nine games.

Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at BetRivers)

Best bet

With all that being said, I am not confident enough to take the Cardinals’ moneyline because Montas has been dominant on the mound, and I could see him shutting down St. Louis. I am also not confident enough to take the Under, due to the firepower in each offense despite the good pitching we should expect to see.

The one play I am most confident in is for the Cardinals’ starter to have yet another good outing. Racking up at least five strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts (70%), Wainwright should be able to get over his strikeout prop in this game.

While this Yankees lineup possesses a ton of power, they also have some guys who strike out frequently. Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson, and Marwin Gonzales each possess a K rate higher than 25%.

Watch for that big swooping curveball that Wainwright possesses to fool a lot of New York hitters this afternoon, a team that likes to swing for the fences frequently.

Adam Wainwright Prop Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128 at BetRivers)

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