Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Dodgers Bring Out Brooms

Despite the noise surrounding Juan Soto's arrival to San Diego, the Padres have now lost three straight games by a combined score of 23-7. Now at the risk of getting swept by the NL-best Dodgers, our MLB betting picks are fading them once more.

Last Updated: Aug 7, 2022 10:43 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tyler Anderson Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
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Baseball fans are in for a treat as this week’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic matchup between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers — two NL West foes and two of the best teams in the league.

The Padres were riding high after acquiring superstar Juan Soto as well as other impact bats, but the Dodgers dominated the first two games of this series by a 16-4 combined score.

If San Diego wants to win it all this year, the path through the NL likely goes through Los Angeles. 

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, August 7. 

Padres vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as -138 favorites. The line has come in a little bit, currently residing between -127 and -136 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 and has moved to 9 in some spots, although both are still available.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

Picks made on 8/7/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Padres vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Sunday, August 7, 2022
First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Padres vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (10-4, 3.30 ERA): Darvish is familiar with pitching in Dodger Stadium, having played for the Dodgers in 2017. He’s been solid this year for San Diego, with a 3.30 ERA and 3.67 xERA. The biggest concern in this spot is that he’s much worse on the road (4.50 ERA) than he is at Petco (2.17 ERA). His 24.8% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and his 5.7% barrel rate leaves something to be desired.

Tyler Anderson (12-1, 2.89 ERA): Anderson is having a career year, highlighted by his 2.89 ERA and 3.20 xERA. He doesn’t make many people whiff (20.5% strikeout rate), but pitches to contact and has allowed only a 3.7% barrel rate. He’ll need to continue keeping hitters from barrelling the ball as his profile is reliant upon that — his .264 BABIP is the lowest mark of his career by a significant margin.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dodgers are 15-3 in games in which Tyler Anderson starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Padres seemed to have announced themselves as legitimate contenders after significantly bolstering the lineup at the trade deadline with the acquisitions of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury.

Everything was looking up and the new-look Padres won their first game together by a score of 9-1 over the Colorado Rockies, highlighted by a Drury grand slam in the first inning.

Fast forward a few days later and the honeymoon phase is over. San Diego had now dropped three straight games by a combined score of 23-7. Sunday marks Game 3 of the series, which has seen the Dodgers make a statement that they’re still the team to beat in the National League.

This pitching matchup is a close one, but Yu Darvish’s 4.50 ERA on the road is concerning. He’s still a solid pitcher, but his strikeout rate of 24.8% is the lowest of his career and a 5.7% barrel rate isn’t encouraging, either.

Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, has a terrific 2.59 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season. The Padres haven’t been great against lefties this season, ranking 19th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+. The new additions should boost that number, but the Padres still shouldn’t be considered lefty killers.

The overall lineup advantage sides with the Dodgers, who rank third in wRC+ over the last 15 days while the Padres check in at ninth. 

The Padres are just 15-42 in their last 57 meetings in Los Angeles and I expect that trend to continue.

Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-127 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

Remarkably, the Under is 7-0 in the Dodgers’ last seven during Game 3 of a series. Will that trend continue on Sunday Night Baseball?

Darvish’s 4.50 road ERA is concerning, but the Dodgers are 12-5-3 to the Under in their last 20 home games against right-handed starters. If we look at recent games, the Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games against righties. 

He’s pitched twice against the Dodgers this season, allowing five earned in a loss on July 2 and tossing six innings of scoreless, one-hit ball back on April 23. He’s been pitching better of late, allowing more than three earned runs only once in his last 10 starts. As such, the Under is 12-7 in San Diego's games when Darvish is on the mound. 

The Padres' new-look lineup is certainly dangerous, but it hasn’t looked that way on the field lately. This is still a talented lineup from top to bottom and Anderson’s career-low BABIP (.264) seems due for regression sooner or later. However, until we see signs of Anderson’s barrel rate (3.7%) start to drop off, he can be projected to induce soft contact. 

It’s tough to take the plunge when both lineups are so dangerous, but I believe the Under is the correct side for Sunday Night Baseball.

Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at 888sport

Best bet

San Diego is in real danger of getting swept. 

The Padres aren’t good in Game 3 of a series (2-7 in their last nine) and they haven’t been terrific against lefties, either (2-7 in their last nine against left-handed starters). They are also 0-4 in their last four road games against left-handed starters.

Dodger Stadium hasn’t been kind to the Padres, who are just 15-42 in their last 57 trips to Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 15-3 in games in which Anderson starts in 2022. There’s a nice price on their’ moneyline (-127), but the way to play the Dodgers this season has been on the run line.

When they win games, it’s generally by more than one run. I’ll be taking them -1.5 (+155) for my best bet.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+155 at bet365)

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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