The Minnesota Twins face off against the Baltimore Orioles in MLB action on Tuesday. This is the second contest in a three-game series at Camden Yards with Baltimore winning 7-4.
Both of these teams won their respective divisions last year, but Minnesota is off to a rough start this season while Baltimore has to keep up with a resurgent Yankees squad in the AL East.
Read on for MLB picks in my Twins vs. Orioles predictions on April 16.
Twins vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
First five innings Orioles run line -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This young Baltimore Orioles squad broke out with an AL East Title last year and is on track for another strong season. They've won five of their last seven games and have been hitting the ball well, ranking fourth in the majors in runs per game (5.56) and eighth in OPS (.746). The Statcast analytics are even better with the O's second in the majors in both barrel rate (9.2%) and hard-hit rate (43%).
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins have been slumping at the plate and they clearly miss injured sluggers Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. Minnesota is 25th in the majors in scoring (3.53 runs/game), OPS (.620), and hard-hit rate (35%) while ranking 16th in barrel rate (7.4%). That ice-cold hitting is a big reason they are 3-7 in their last 10 contests.
The Twins will send Chris Paddack to the mound and he's now almost two years removed from his second Tommy John surgery. In two starts this season, Paddack has put up a 4.15 ERA, and his OBA of .342 and 5.29 xERA are cause for concern.
The O's reply with Grayson Rodriguez who entered last season as the No. 7 prospect in baseball but struggled out of the gate and was sent down to the minors at the end of May.
He returned in July and showed massive improvement, pitching to a 2.26 ERA with a 2.75 FIP and an OBA of .217 over his final 12 starts. That play has carried into this season with Rodriguez pitching to a 2.50 ERA with a 3.49 xERA through three starts.
With the Orioles having the better starter and the far more impressive lineup, along with home-field advantage, there's plenty of reason to like them here. The only advantage the Twins have in this matchup is their improved bullpen, so let's take that factor out of the equation and back the O's to have the lead after five innings.
Twins vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Five innings run line Orioles -0.5
Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 strikeouts
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 RBI
Minnesota has struggled to make contact for years. It was dead-last in the majors in strikeout rate last season (26.8%) and is third from the bottom this year (27.5%). Rodriguez is in the Top 25th percentile of pitchers when it comes to generating whiffs and strikeouts. He had five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in his previous start but racked up nine and seven K games in his first two outings of the season.
Cedric Mullins had a bit of a down year in 2023 but still finished with 74 RBI in 112 games. He's making much better contact this season and despite batting seventh in the lineup, he's been driving in runs. Mullins is tied for the team lead with 13 RBI and he's been red-hot over the last week, slashing .429/.500/.762. The left-handed Mullins will also have the platoon advantage against Paddack.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Orioles odds
Twins vs Orioles live odds
Twins vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-155) | Baltimore -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +135 | Baltimore -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Twins vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- There are some stark differences on the ML between books for this matchup with some installing the Orioles as high as -182 and others pegging them at -154
- The Over/Under opened at 8.5 with both sides at -110. Money has come in on the Under with some books shifting the number to 8 while others have juiced the u8.5 to -120
- Since being acquired by Minnesota in 2022, Paddack has pitched just 36 innings however the Twins have won the last eight regular season games that he has pitched in
- Baltimore went 101-61 last season and was the best money team in baseball, turning a profit of +31.3 units on the ML during the regular season.
Twins vs Orioles trend
The Twins have only hit the first five innings moneyline in 47 of their last 108 games (-22.85 Units / -14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Orioles
Twins vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, MASN |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Chris Paddack (0-0, 4.15 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (2-0, 2.50 ERA) |
Twins vs Orioles latest injuries
Twins vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
