This is still the portion of the MLB season ripe for overreaction, but so far we’ve got some competitive divisions taking shape — and tonight’s slate should add to the early fight for positioning.
That includes an NL West race, which looks as good as advertised. Just 1.5 games separate the top three teams, and we’ve got a heavyweight clash on deck here as the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres collide.
My top MLB player props for the April 30 action feature a wager on that marquee matchup and a bet on the New York Yankees’ offense showing up yet again.
Best MLB player props today
King o6.5 strikeouts (-130 at BetMGM)
Povich o2.5 earned runs allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Lindor o1.5 total bases (+133 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 30
Michael King Over 6.5 strikeouts (-130 at BetMGM)
The bar was set high after Michael King served up 200+ Ks in his first season as a starter with the San Diego Padres, but there’s no sign of any drop-off so far this year. If anything, the arrow is pointing up for the hard-throwing righty.
King ranks ninth in the majors with a 2.18 ERA, and he’s tied for 13th with 40 strikeouts through six starts. I’m buying into the hype and taking the Over on 6.5 Ks today against the San Francisco Giants.
There’s a level of consistency to count on with King. He’s racked up 7+ punchouts in four of his last five outings, including nine Ks in five innings of work against Tampa Bay on Friday. He’s also got a few prior victims in the Giants dugout, with Matt Chapman and LaMonte Wade Jr. striking out a combined nine times in their careers against King.
This San Francisco lineup struck out 14 times in last night’s 7-4 loss, with Padres starter Nick Pivetta accounting for nine of those. Look for King to have similar success here.
Cade Povich Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Baltimore Orioles southpaw Cade Povich is the latest pitcher to run the gauntlet against this powerhouse New York Yankees lineup, and he’s even unluckier to be facing Aaron Judge & Co. on the heels of an avalanche of home runs last night.
The Yankees smashed six solo dingers in yesterday’s 15-3 win at Oriole Park, and there’s potential for things to get out of hand if Povich doesn’t settle in early. Tuesday saw New York take a quick 5-0 lead in the first inning, blasting four homers in the process.
That makes the Over on 2.5 earned runs allowed a value pick, with Povich posting a 5.04 ERA through five starts this year. In his only other home start against New York last season, he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings, including a solo homer by Judge.
Povich only lasted 3 1/3 innings against Cincinnati earlier this month, giving up seven runs, and I expect the Bronx Bombers to make some noise against the inexperienced lefty.
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+133 at Caesars)
Count Francisco Lindor in the small group of hitters that seem unfazed by facing Corbin Burnes. Lindor has a 6-for-18 record against the Arizona Diamondbacks ace, including two doubles and a triple, and I’m grabbing these odds for Over 1.5 bases tonight.
The New York Mets shortstop is hitting .302 with a .855 OPS, and he’s been on a particular tear lately, swinging his way to 14 hits across his past eight outings.
I’m also locked in on Lindor’s record at Citi Field, where he’s been even more of a menace. His average balloons to .418 at home this season, and he thumped a two-run homer in last night’s win.
Meanwhile, with a 4.05 ERA and just 25 strikeouts, Burnes is still searching for his best stuff this season, and that opens the door for the Mets to apply pressure at the top of the order. Whether it’s against the Arizona ace or the visitors’ bullpen, I like Lindor to cash this prop.
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