The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a series this evening.
Last night was, well, ugly—at least for one team. The Yankees began the game with four consecutive homers, and Kyle Gibson's season debut went about as poorly as possible in a 15-3 final. New York would love to replicate anything close to that, while Baltimore will look to regroup. We expect fireworks from both teams.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Tuesday, April 29.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My Yankees vs Orioles best bet: Over 9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
I'm on the Over for my best bet with a projection of 10.2 runs. It was a bombs-away day yesterday, and we took advantage of it with our best bet. While the long ball is unlikely to be as frequent today, there's still plenty to think about this total with two exploitable pitchers on the mound.
I have faded New York Yankees hurler Carlos Carrasco in every start he's made this season. And, for the most part, it's gone relatively well. I'm following a belief that I've followed all season: my belief that he's hardly a serviceable starter at this point in his career. We'll get back to that in a moment; let's talk about the Yankees offense first.
Cade Povich has had a rough stretch to start this season with not a ton to point to from a positive perspective. In this matchup, we have the combination of things that we usually look for when it comes to the Yankees.
Does the pitcher give up hard contact? Yes, Povich comes into this game with a hard-hit rate just above 45% and a barrel rate nearly in the bottom 30% of baseball.
Does the pitcher produce a lot of whiffs? No, Povich's whiff rate has stayed consistent with his rookie season at just below 20% and well below the league average.
Does the pitcher lean on the fastball? Yes, Povich's primary pitch is the four-seam fastball.
These are all consistent attributes with pitchers that the Yankees successfully attack. I also don't hate that we'll see this combination of things from a Southpaw with some of the biggest power bats in the Yankees lineup hitting lefties better than they have righties this season.
Now back to Carrasco. He has many similar attributes to his opposition, with a barrel and hard-hit rate that's even worse, along with a similar whiff rate. At age 38, however, he's at a very different point in his career and is a clearplaceholder until the Yankees lineup gets healthy.
His heavy breaking ball approach should suit the Baltimore Orioles well. Regarding his two primary pitches, the Orioles lineup will have up to five players with an above-average BaBIP against them. Additionally, batters like Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, and Jordan Westburg boost some impressive hard-hit clips against them.
Both teams have good matchups, and both pitchers are largely unimpressive. I expect some fireworks this evening on another warm evening in Baltimore.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Aaron Judge home run
Cedric Mullins RBI
My fair odds for Aaron Judge to go deep today were around +175. That's how I'll start this same-game parlay. He'll see a left-handed, inexperienced pitcher who gives up a ton of barrels and throws hard. Do I need to say more?
I also used Cedric Mullins to record an RBI as well. The pitch mix for him is favorable, and the players around him are at the bottom of the lineup. His high percentage of pulled flyballs always plays well at Camden Yards, which also has shallow fences.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Baltimore +134
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+109) | Baltimore +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.55 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-30-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 5.26 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Cade Povich (1-2, 5.04 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
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