It has been a tough start to the season for both the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. The American League Central foes both have losing records but will try to build some momentum in this divisional matchup.
Cleveland struck first in the opener of this three-game set, thanks to a walk-off homer from Jordan Luplow, so Minnesota will try to respond when they hand the ball to Kenta Maeda in Game 2.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Twins vs. Indians on Tuesday, April 27, with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET.
Twins vs Indians odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis game was practically a pick 'em at the outset, opening Cleveland -107 at TwinSpires, then seeing the Twins move out to -120 favorites. As of 3:30 p.m. ET, the Indians are taking 55 percent of tickets, while the Twins are landing 68 percent of money, including some sharp Minnesota action. The total is up a full run, from 7.5 (Over -120) to 8.5 (Over -107), with 57 percent of tickets/72 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTwins vs Indians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (1-1, 6.11 ERA): Maeda is coming off an excellent first season in Minnesota but that hasn’t carried over to 2021 just yet. The right-hander is coming off arguably his worst start with the Twins, allowing seven runs on eight hits in just three innings against the A’s. That start upped his WHIP to an ugly 1.87.
Aaron Civale (3-0, 2.42 ERA): Civale looks like the latest in the long line of great Cleveland starters. The right-hander uses a solid mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance and create a lot of soft contact. That has allowed Civale to pitch to a 2.42 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and limit opponents to a .161 batting average.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Twins: Andrelton Simmons SS (Questionable), Miguel Sano 1B (Out), Max Kepler RF (Out).
Indians: Cam Hill RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Kenta Maeda's last four starts as a road favorite and 6-0-1 in Civale's last seven starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Indians.
Moneyline pick
With last night’s walk-off loss, the Twins have now dropped 12 of their last 14 games and while they have had a lot of issues during this slump, none has been worse than at the dish. During this 14-game stretch, the Twins have scored three runs or fewer 11 times and rank dead last in OPS.
Now they go against Civale, who is really hard to barrel up and has pitched well against better Minnesota lineups over the past two seasons. Civale has made four starts against the Twins in his career, pitching to a 3.13 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and racking up 26 strikeouts over 23 innings.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has ended a four-game slide of its own by winning two in a row. Cleveland is not a strong-hitting team, but Maeda is finding too much of the plate right now and the result is getting hit hard. Then he hands the ball off to a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and 21st in opponent batting average.
All things considered, Cleveland is providing decent value as a short home underdog.
PREDICTION: Cleveland (+100)
Over/Under pick
The total for this AL Central matchup opened a low 7.5 and that shouldn’t be a surprise because these teams have a long history of playing to the Under. In fact, the Under is 46-20-3 in the last 59 meetings and 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Cleveland.
As mentioned, Civale should be able to keep the slumping Twins’ bats down...but there is still reason to believe Maeda can figure out what has been plaguing him and get back on track. Heck, his WHIP is more than double what it was last season.
Plus, he dominated Cleveland last season, pitching to a 0.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in three starts against the Tribe. So, maybe a start against Cleveland is just what Maeda needs. And it’s not like Cleveland owns a potent lineup—it ranks 28th in batting average and 26th in OPS.
Despite the total moving to 8, pitching should be the story in this one. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Twins vs Indians betting card
- Cleveland (+100)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 4/27/2021 at 8:14 a.m. ET
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