The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday for a series-opening two-game set in Dunedin, Florida.
Both teams got a breather Monday and will head into this game refreshed. The Nationals are looking to get back in the win column with ace Max Scherzer on the bump, while Toronto is going for its fourth win in five games.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Blue Jays on April 27, with first pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.
Nationals vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWith Max Scherzer dealing, the Nationals went up as -143 favorites at TwinSpires, but that moneyline is down to -117 as of 4:30 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays are attracting 53 percent of tickets and 59 percent of cash. The total is stable at 8.5, shaded slightly toward the Under, with 69 percent of tickets/63 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNationals vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (1-1, 1.80 ERA): The veteran right-hander has been off to a sizzling start. His worst performance of the season was a nine-strikeout game on Opening Day, as he's allowed one run over three starts since. The workhorse has pitched six-plus innings in all four of his outings, has the best strikeout-to-walk rate of his career (the eighth-best mark in the majors), and hasn't allowed a homer after surrendering four to the Braves in his first start. He's in vintage form and shutting down every team that steps in his way.
Trent Thornton (0-0, 1.86 ERA): Thornton is the first arm up in what will be a bullpen day for Toronto. It's a role Thornton filled last Wednesday when he threw the first two innings of an eventual win over the Red Sox. He hasn't gone more than two innings in any of his six appearances this season and isn't likely to see more than that Tuesday. After Thornton, who hasn't allowed a run over his last four outings, the Blue Jays will turn to a bullpen that ranks first in the majors with a 2.10 ERA.
Weather
The temperature is expected to be 82 degrees Fahrenheit and mostly sunny for first pitch, with northeast winds of 6 mph and wind gusts of 8 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Juan Soto OF (Out), Wander Suero RP (Out).
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Nationals' last five games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Blue Jays.
Moneyline pick
Toronto is hot, winning three of its last four games, including a 1-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. Even better for Toronto is that Springer, the club's prized offseason acquisition who signed the most lucrative deal in franchise history this offseason, is close to returning. It was looking like he would make his Blue Jays debut tonight but he's been ruled out. With or without Springer the Blue Jays were going to be in tough with the way Scherzer has been throwing.
The Nationals ace has been dynamite and is certainly not showing signs of slowing down at 36 years old. He has a 1.80 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and is holding opponents to a minuscule .161 batting average. He's struck out 35.9 percent of the batters he has faced (which would be a career-high mark) and he's generating a lot of soft contact when hitters have been able to put the bat on the ball.
Toronto's lineup would have certainly gotten a boost with Springer in the middle of it, but the club's offense has so far looked better on paper than it does in practice. The same can be said about the Nationals, who are struggling at the dish and without superstar Juan Soto, but they will have shortstop Trea Turner at the top of the lineup after he entered the day as questionable.
The Blue Jays bullpen has been on point but it's a lot to ask of any relief group to toss six-to-eight innings, which is what will be needed Tuesday, and come out of it with a win. Not to mention that Washington has won three of the four games Scherzer has started, with the only loss coming to the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early action has seen the line drop from Washington -149 to -135 and that's enough to make the Nats an automatic on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Nationals (-135)
Over/Under pick
Any time Scherzer is on the hill means an Under is in play, regardless of opponent. He's that good. Toss in the fact that his own team has a terrible offense and it becomes super appealing.
There's been a combined five runs scored in his last three starts. That's five combined by both teams. The Nationals lost 3-0 to L.A. on April 11 and have won 1-0 in each of Scherzer's last two outings. The Blue Jays could very well still have one of the game's most potent lineups once Springer and power-hitter Teoscar Hernandez are occupying the heart of the order but the team has struggled so far.
Toronto entered the off day ranking 25th in the majors in on-base percentage (.297) and slugging percentage (.363), 24th in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus at 12 percent below league average, and 23rd in runs scored. Somehow, the Nationals have been worse.
While the Nationals rank 15th in OBP at 11 points higher than the Blue Jays, they are 29th in slugging, 29th in wRC+, last in homers, and they are scoring the fewest runs per game in the National League at 3.26. They can't get Soto and his .410 OBP (.490 last year and .415 for his career) back soon enough.
If you need any more reasons why the Under is the play, there's this: The Nationals are 6-12-1 O/U, while the Blue Jays (6-15 O/U) are cashing Unders at a 71.4 percent clip — the highest rate in the majors.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)
Nationals vs Blue Jays betting card
- Nationals (-135)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 9:43 p.m. ET
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